The relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade is inconclusive in the current literature. I find evidence this is due to variation in definitions of exchange rate volatility. My results suggest common volatility measures weigh variation differently over time and economic conditions. Using an autoregressive distributed lag model, I demonstrate the importance of volatility measurement to the estimated relationship of volatility and exports. I find substantial variation across volatility measures, trading partners, and pre-/post-2008. When significant, the relationship is almost always negative, albeit unsubstantial. In order to overcome the literature's mixed results, the definition of volatility needs to be standardized.

中文翻译：

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汇率波动对贸易的影响：波动性衡量很重要

在当前的文献中，汇率波动与贸易之间的关系尚无定论。我发现有证据表明这是由于汇率波动定义的变化。我的研究结果表明，常见的波动性衡量指标随时间和经济状况的变化而不同。使用自回归分布式滞后模型，我证明了波动率测量对波动率和出口的估计关系的重要性。我发现波动性指标、贸易伙伴和 2008 年之前/之后的差异很大。当重要时，这种关系几乎总是消极的，尽管并不实质性。为了克服文献中的混合结果，波动率的定义需要标准化。