ABSTRACT

This study examines the cause-and-effect relationship between military expenditure, security outcome and industrialisation for a panel of 35 African countries spanning from 1990 to 2015. We employed: (i) the Pairwise Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test; and (ii) the newly developed panel VAR in generalised method of moment (GMM) estimation approach was applied to determine what magnitude can future disparities in industrialisation be explained by military expenditure and security outcome. The empirical results suggest the existence of a long-run relationship between military expenditure, security outcome and industrialisation. The causality tests reveal that there is feedback causality between the three variables: Military expenditure promotes security outcome and industrialisation in Africa and vice versa. Thus, an appropriate defense and security sector policies will further contribute to the industrialisation process of Africa.

摘要

本研究检验了 1990 年至 2015 年间由 35 个非洲国家组成的小组的军事开支、安全成果和工业化之间的因果关系。(ii) 应用广义矩量法 (GMM) 估计方法中新开发的面板 VAR 来确定军事支出和安全结果可以解释未来工业化的差距有多大。实证结果表明，军费开支、安全成果和工业化之间存在长期关系。因果检验表明，三个变量之间存在反馈因果关系：军事支出促进非洲的安全成果和工业化，反之亦然。因此，