Abstract

This study evaluates the impact of campaign propaganda on both the outcome of the 2015 presidential poll and post-election governance in Nigeria. It specifically analyses how ethno-religious campaign messages of the two major political parties determined the rational voting choices of individuals, the triumph of an opposition party, and the policy direction of the winning party. This study is qualitative and it is derived from the Rational Choice theory. It notes that politicians exploit their influence on the media to promote campaign messages immersed in ethno-religious sentiments to determine electoral outcomes. Thus, the media were a willing tool for political actors and foreign interests to spread controversial messages and a campaign of calumny against perceived opponents. While campaign propaganda filled with hate speeches and questionable information contributed to the historic defeat of an incumbent in the Nigeria’s 2015 presidential poll, evidence suggest that the winning party has not substantially fulfilled its electoral promises five years after political ascendancy. The paper therefore recommends expansion of the constitutional roles of the Election Management Body, massive political enlightenment engagement, and establishment/strengthening of key democratic institutions.

摘要

这项研究评估了竞选宣传对尼日利亚2015年总统大选结果和选举后治理的影响。它专门分析了两个主要政党的民族宗教竞选信息如何确定个人的合理投票选择，反对党的胜利和获胜党的政策方向。这项研究是定性的，它源自理性选择理论。它指出，政客利用他们对媒体的影响力来促进沉浸在民族宗教情绪中的竞选信息，从而确定选举结果。因此，媒体是政治角色和外国利益集团传播有争议的信息以及针对感知到的反对者进行挑衅运动的一种愿意的工具。尽管充满仇恨言论和可疑信息的竞选宣传造成了尼日利亚2015年总统大选的历史性失败，但有证据表明，获胜的政党在政治上位五年后仍未真正履行其选举诺言。因此，本文建议扩大选举管理机构的宪法角色，大规模的政治启蒙活动以及建立/加强主要的民主机构。