Marine ecosystems, biodiversity, and fisheries are under strain worldwide due to global changes including climate warming and demographic pressure. To address this issue, many scientists and stakeholders advocate the use of an ecosystem approach for fisheries that integrates the numerous ecological and economic complexities at play rather than focusing on the management of individual target species. However, the operationalization of such an ecosystem approach remains challenging, especially from a bio-economic standpoint. Here, to address this issue, we propose a model of intermediate complexity (MICE) relying on multi-species, multi-fleet, and resource-based dynamics. Climate change effects are incorporated through an envelope model for the biological growth of fish species as a function of sea surface temperature. The model is calibrated for the small-scale fishery in French Guiana using a time series of fish landings and fishing effort from 2006 to 2018. From the calibrated model, a predictive fishing effort projection and RCP climate scenarios derived from IPCC, we explore the ecosystem dynamics and the fishery production at the horizon 2100. Our results demonstrate the long-term detrimental impact of both climate change and ecological competition on fish biodiversity. The prognosis is particularly catastrophic under the most pessimistic climate scenario, with a potential collapse of both biomass targeted species and fishing activity by 2100.

由于包括气候变暖和人口压力在内的全球变化，海洋生态系统，生物多样性和渔业在世界范围内处于紧张状态。为了解决这个问题，许多科学家和利益相关者主张将生态系统方法用于渔业，该方法整合了正在发挥作用的众多生态和经济复杂性，而不是专注于单个目标物种的管理。但是，这种生态系统方法的可操作性仍然具有挑战性，特别是从生物经济的角度来看。在这里，为了解决这个问题，我们提出了一个依赖于多物种，多舰队和基于资源的动力学的中间复杂度（MICE）模型。通过包络模型将气候变化影响纳入其中，以作为海水表面温度的函数来实现鱼类的生物生长。该模型针对法属圭亚那的小型渔业进行了校准，使用的时间序列为2006年至2018年的鱼类着陆和捕捞努力。根据校准模型，可预测的捕捞努力预测和IPCC得出的RCP气候情景，我们探索了生态系统动态和渔业在2100年的前景。我们的结果证明了气候变化和生态竞争对鱼类生物多样性的长期不利影响。在最悲观的气候情景下，预后尤其是灾难性的，到2100年，以生物质为目标的物种和捕捞活动都可能崩溃。根据IPCC的预测性捕捞努力预测和RCP气候情景，我们探索了2100年地平线上的生态系统动态和渔业生产。我们的结果证明了气候变化和生态竞争对鱼类生物多样性的长期不利影响。在最悲观的气候情景下，预后尤其是灾难性的，到2100年，以生物质为目标的物种和捕捞活动都可能崩溃。根据IPCC的预测性捕捞努力预测和RCP气候情景，我们探讨了2100年地平线上的生态系统动态和渔业生产。我们的结果证明了气候变化和生态竞争对鱼类生物多样性的长期不利影响。在最悲观的气候情景下，预后尤其是灾难性的，到2100年，以生物质为目标的物种和捕捞活动都可能崩溃。