Protected Areas (PAs) are spatially representative management tools that impose various levels of protection for conservation purposes. As spatially regulated places, ensuring compliance with the rules represents a key element of effective management and positive conservation outcomes. Wildlife crime, and in particular poaching, is a serious global problem that undermines the success of PAs. This study applies a socio-ecological approach to understanding the opportunity structure of illegal recreational fishing (poaching) in no-take zones in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. We use Boosted Regression Trees to predict the spatio-temporal distribution of poaching risk within no-take Marine National Park zones. The results show that five risk factors account for nearly three quarters (73.6%) of the relative importance for poaching in no-take zones and that temporally varying conditions influence risk across space. We discuss these findings through the theoretical lens of Environmental Criminology and suggest that law enforcement strategies focus on reducing the negative outcomes associated with poaching by limiting the opportunity of would-be offenders to undertake illegal activity.

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海洋保护区的非法捕捞和合规管理：一种情势方法

保护区（PAs）是具有空间代表性的管理工具，出于保护目的而施加了不同级别的保护。作为受空间限制的场所，确保遵守规则是有效管理和取得积极保护成果的关键要素。野生动植物犯罪，尤其是偷猎，是一个严重的全球性问题，破坏了保护区的成功。这项研究采用社会生态学方法来了解澳大利亚大堡礁海洋公园禁区内非法休闲捕鱼（偷猎）的机会结构。我们使用增强回归树来预测不采取行动的国家海洋公园区域内偷猎风险的时空分布。结果表明，五个风险因素占了近四分之三（73。禁猎区偷猎的相对重要性为6％），并且随时间变化的条件会影响整个空间的风险。我们通过环境犯罪学的理论视角讨论这些发现，并建议执法策略着重于通过限制潜在犯罪者进行非法活动的机会来减少与偷猎有关的负面结果。