ABSTRACT

In the face of climate change, development and humanitarian practitioners increasingly recognize the need to anticipate and manage multiple, concurrent risks. One prominent example of this increasing focus on anticipation is the rapid growth of Forecast-based Financing (FbF), in particular within Red Cross and Red Crescent (RCRC). To evaluate how anticipatory efforts managed multiple compounding risks during the COVID-19 pandemic, we examine how 14 RCRC Societies adapted their Early Action Protocols to COVID-19. Though many National Societies successfully adapted to the onset of the additional hazard of COVID-19, we find that multi-hazard risk management can be improved by: proactively developing guidelines that enable rapid adaptation of existing plans; more flexible funding mechanisms; surge capacity to provide additional human resources; and increasing local capacity and ownership for implementation to ensure supplies, skills, and decision-making authority are available when communication or travel is restricted. These findings align with wider recommendations for improving development, humanitarian, and climate adaptation practice towards local capacity and agency. They also add urgency to broader calls for more flexible disaster financing and more practitioner-oriented investment in climate risk and multi-hazard management.

摘要

面对气候变化，发展和人道主义从业者越来越认识到预测和管理多重并发风险的必要性。这种对预期的日益关注的一个突出例子是基于预测的融资 (FbF) 的快速增长，特别是在红十字与红新月会 (RCRC) 内部。为了评估在 COVID-19 大流行期间预期努力如何管理多种复合风险，我们研究了 14 个 RCRC 社团如何将其早期行动协议调整到 COVID-19。尽管许多国家红会成功地适应了 COVID-19 的额外危害，但我们发现可以通过以下方式改进多危害风险管理： 积极制定能够快速适应现有计划的指南；更灵活的筹资机制；增加提供额外人力资源的能力；提高当地实施能力和所有权，以确保在通信或旅行受到限制时提供物资、技能和决策权。这些发现与更广泛的建议相一致，这些建议旨在针对当地能力和机构改善发展、人道主义和气候适应实践。它们还增加了对更灵活的灾害融资和更多以实践者为导向的气候风险和多灾种管理投资的更广泛呼吁的紧迫性。