Evaluation of the AROME model's ability to represent ice crystal icing using in situ observations from the HAIC 2015 field campaign,Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

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Evaluation of the AROME model's ability to represent ice crystal icing using in situ observations from the HAIC 2015 field campaign
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society ( IF 3.0 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-15 , DOI: 10.1002/qj.4100
Jean Wurtz ₁ , Dominique Bouniol ₁ , Benoît Vié ₁ , Christine Lac ₁

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Since pilots generally avoid intense convective areas, ice crystals icing (ICI) is an aeronautical weather incident that mainly occurs in the anvil of tropical deep convective clouds. Samples of favorable conditions for the occurrence of ICI and data from the High Altitude Ice Crystals (HAIC) 2015 field campaign in French Guiana are investigated and compared with simulations of the French operational mesoscale forecast system Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscales (AROME). To this end, a contextualization of convective systems into convective, stratiform, and cirriform regions is employed for both observations and AROME. General features of the microphysics of deep tropical convective systems are identified. The number concentration of crystals larger than 125 μm and total water content (TWC) are strongly correlated at each temperature level, and both decrease with increasing distance from convective cores. AROME can reproduce the general behavior of the observed microphysics, especially TWC, but seems unable to simulate extreme ICI events. Reasons are sought in the assumptions performed in the microphysical scheme ICE3, and guidelines are proposed to enhance its skills in the context of ICI. In particular, the representation of the snow particle size distribution is adjusted across observations using a generalized gamma shape. This shape is found to outperform the usual Marshall–Palmer and gamma shapes. Additionally, a temperature and snow content dependence of generalized gamma parameters is found. These changes are found to significantly improve the snow concentration diagnostic of ICE3, and these modifications open the way for improvements in the ICE3 scheme.

中文翻译：

使用 HAIC 2015 野外活动的原位观测评估 AROME 模型表示冰晶结冰的能力

由于飞行员一般会避开强对流区，冰晶结冰（ICI）是一种航空天气事件，主要发生在热带深对流云的砧处。对发生 ICI 的有利条件样本和法属圭亚那高海拔冰晶 (HAIC) 2015 年野外活动的数据进行了调查，并与法国业务中尺度预报系统将研究应用于中尺度运行 (AROME) 的模拟进行了比较。为此，观测和 AROME 均采用对流系统上下文化为对流、层状和卷状区域。确定了热带深层对流系统微物理的一般特征。大于 125 μm 的晶体数量浓度和总含水量 (TWC) 在每个温度水平上都具有很强的相关性，并且两者都随着与对流核心距离的增加而降低。AROME 可以重现观察到的微物理的一般行为，尤其是 TWC，但似乎无法模拟极端的 ICI 事件。在微物理方案 ICE3 中执行的假设中寻找原因，并提出了指导方针以提高其在 ICI 背景下的技能。特别是，雪粒子大小分布的表示在使用广义伽马形状的观察中进行了调整。发现这种形状优于通常的 Marshall-Palmer 和 gamma 形状。此外，还发现了广义伽马参数的温度和雪含量依赖性。

更新日期：2021-05-15

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