This paper aims to propose a methodology to evaluate and quantify perturbed groundwater budgets considering the projected reduction of Average Snow Fraction of Surface Runoff (ASFSR). Future groundwater budgets are generated considering different CC temporal Scenarios, RCMs, as well as the status of each Groundwater Body (GwB). The proposed methodology is applied to the Central Mountain Range of Iberian Peninsula (Avila Province). Existing studies show a drastic Reduction on Snow Melting (RSM) and on Cumulative Snow Volume (CSV). This leads to a huge reduction of Average Snow Fraction of Surface Runoff (ASFSR) and on groundwater availability calculated through the indicator Perturbed Exploitation Index (PEI). There are important differences depending on the RCM used, on the temporal CC Scenario and on the GwB considered. Main difficulties and challenges comprise the lack of field data and rigorous studies on modelling of groundwater hydrodynamic modelling. Despite of that, research results show a robust and generalized increase in all Exploitation Indexes (EI). EI increase is of 4.17 % for IP1 (Short Term) RCP 4.5, 14.94 % for IP2 (Medium Term) RCP 4.5, 17.65 % for IP3 (Long Term) RCP 4.5. On the other hand, there is an increase of 9.89 % for IP1 RCP 8.5, 19.05 % for IP2 RCP 8.5 and 35.14 % for IP3 RCP 8.5. Thus, there is a generalised and very important decrease of recharge (PARR) of 59.03 % for IP1 RCP 4.5, 88.97 % for IP2 RCP 4.5, 90.02 % for IP3. Likewise, for RCP 8.5, there is a decrease of 72.69 % for IP1 RCP 8.5, 88.97 % for IP2 RCP 8.5 and 97.90 % for IP3.

本文旨在提出一种方法，考虑到预计的地表径流平均降雪分数（ASFSR）的减少，来评估和量化受扰动的地下水预算。未来的地下水预算是根据不同的CC时间情景，RCM以及每个地下水体（GwB）的状态生成的。拟议的方法适用于伊比利亚半岛（阿维拉省）的中央山脉。现有研究表明，融雪量（RSM）和积雪量（CSV）都大大降低了。这导致地表径流的平均降雪分数（ASFSR）大大降低，并且通过指示扰动开采指数（PEI）计算的地下水可利用率大大降低。根据所使用的RCM，临时CC方案和所考虑的GwB，存在重要的差异。主要的困难和挑战包括缺乏现场数据和对地下水动力模型建模的严格研究。尽管如此，研究结果显示所有剥削指数（EI）均出现强劲而普遍的增长。对于IP1（短期）RCP 4.5，EI增长为4.17％，对于IP2（中期）RCP 4.5，EI增长为14.94％，对于IP3（长期）RCP 4.5，EI增长为17.65％。另一方面，IP1 RCP 8.5增加了9.89％，IP2 RCP 8.5增加了19.05％，IP3 RCP 8.5增加了35.14％。因此，IP1 RCP 4.5的充值（PARR）普遍且非常重要的降低，分别为59.03％，IP2 RCP 4.5的88.97％，IP3 90.02％。同样，对于RCP 8.5，IP1 RCP 8.5降低了72.69％，IP2 RCP 8.5降低了88.97％，IP3降低了97.90％。