Recent adverse weather events have questioned the stability of crop production systems. Here, we assessed the vulnerability of eleven major crops in France between 1959 and 2018 as a function of climate, crafting a novel hazard framework that combines exposure and sensitivity to weather-related hazards. Exposure was defined as the frequency of hazardous climate conditions. Sensitivity of crops was estimated by the yield response to single and compound hazards, using observed yields available at département (county) level. Vulnerability was computed as the exposure-weighted average of crop sensitivities. Our results do not reveal any evidence for historically increased vulnerability of French crop production. Sensitivity to adverse weather events, and thus the overall vulnerability, has significantly decreased for six of the eleven crops between 1959 and 2018, and shown no significant decline or remained stable for the other five. Yet compound hazards can induce yield losses of 30% or more for several crops. Moreover, as heat-related hazards are projected to become more frequent with climate change, crop vulnerability may rise again in the future.

最近的恶劣天气事件对农作物生产系统的稳定性提出了质疑。在这里，我们根据气候对1959年至2018年法国11种主要农作物的脆弱性进行了评估，并制定了一个新颖的危害框架，将暴露和对与天气有关的危害的敏感性结合在一起。暴露定义为危险气候条件的发生频率。使用对部门（县）可用的观察到的单产，通过对单种和复合危害的单产响应来估计农作物的敏感性。脆弱性计算为作物敏感性的暴露加权平均值。我们的结果没有发现任何证据表明法国农作物生产的脆弱性在历史上有所提高。对不利天气事件的敏感性，从而对整体脆弱性的敏感性，在1959年至2018年之间的11种农作物中有6种的大豆产量显着下降，而其他5种作物没有明显下降或保持稳定。然而，复合危害可能导致几种作物的产量损失达到30％或更多。此外，由于预计与热相关的危害会随着气候变化而变得更加频繁，因此将来农作物的脆弱性可能会再次上升。