The economic downturn and the air travel crisis triggered by the recent coronavirus pandemic pose a substantial threat to the new consumer class of many emerging economies. In Brazil, considerable improvements in social inclusion have fostered the emergence of hundreds of thousands of first-time fliers over the past decades. We apply a two-step regression methodology in which the first step consists of identifying air transport markets characterized by greater social inclusion, using indicators of the local economies’ income distribution, credit availability, and access to the Internet. In the second step, we inspect the drivers of the plunge in air travel demand since the pandemic began, differentiating markets by their predicted social inclusion intensity. After controlling for potential endogeneity stemming from the spread of COVID-19 through air travel, our results suggest that short and low-density routes are among the most impacted airline markets and that business-oriented routes are more impacted than leisure ones. Finally, we estimate that a market with 1% higher social inclusion is associated with a 0.153%–0.166% more pronounced decline in demand during the pandemic. Therefore, markets that have benefited from greater social inclusion in the country may be the most vulnerable to the current crisis.

最近冠状病毒大流行引发的经济衰退和航空旅行危机对许多新兴经济体的新消费阶层构成了重大威胁。在巴西，在过去几十年里，社会包容性的显着改善促进了数十万名首次飞行者的涌现。我们采用两步回归方法，其中第一步包括确定具有更大社会包容性特征的航空运输市场，使用当地经济收入分配、信贷可用性和互联网接入的指标。在第二步中，我们检查自大流行开始以来航空旅行需求暴跌的驱动因素，通过预测的社会包容强度来区分市场。在控制了 COVID-19 通过航空旅行传播的潜在内生性后，我们的结果表明，短途和低密度航线是受影响最大的航空市场之一，而商务航线比休闲航线受到的影响更大。最后，我们估计，社会包容度提高 1% 的市场与大流行期间需求下降 0.153% 至 0.166% 更明显相关。因此，受益于该国更大社会包容性的市场可能最容易受到当前危机的影响。大流行期间需求下降 166%。因此，受益于该国更大社会包容性的市场可能最容易受到当前危机的影响。大流行期间需求下降 166%。因此，受益于该国更大社会包容性的市场可能最容易受到当前危机的影响。