This study empirically examines the impact of climate change on cereal production in selected lower-middle-income countries with a balanced panel dataset spanning 1971–2016. The study uses average annual temperature and rainfall to measure climate change. Besides this, CO₂ emissions, cultivated land under cereal production, and rural population are used as the control variables. Second-generation unit root tests, i.e., CIPS and CADF, are used to test the stationarity of the variables. Feasible generalized least square (FGLS) and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) models are used to achieve the objective. Pedroni cointegration test confirms the presence of cointegration between cereal production and climate change variables. The findings show that a rise in the temperature reduces cereal production in lower-middle-income countries. In contrast, rainfall and CO₂ emissions have a positive effect on cereal production. For robustness purpose, the Driscoll-Kraay standard regression and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models have also found similar results. Dumitrescu-Hurlin test has found the bidirectional causality of cereal production with temperature and CO₂ emissions. Also, unidirectional causality is running from rainfall and rural population to cereal production. The adverse effects of temperature on cereal production are likely to pose severe implications for food security. The paper recommends that governments of the sample countries should research and develop heat-resistant varieties of cereal crops to cope with the adverse effects of temperature on cereal production and ensure food security.

本研究利用 1971 年至 2016 年的平衡面板数据集实证检验了气候变化对选定的中低收入国家谷物生产的影响。该研究利用年平均气温和降雨量来衡量气候变化。除此之外，还采用CO ₂排放量、谷物耕地面积和农村人口作为控制变量。第二代单位根检验，即CIPS和CADF，用于检验变量的平稳性。使用可行的广义最小二乘（FGLS）和完全修改的普通最小二乘（FMOLS）模型来实现该目标。 Pedroni 协整检验证实了谷物产量与气候变化变量之间存在协整关系。研究结果表明，气温升高会降低中低收入国家的谷物产量。相比之下，降雨和CO ₂排放对谷物产量有积极影响。出于鲁棒性目的，Driscoll-Kraay 标准回归和动态普通最小二乘 (DOLS) 模型也发现了类似的结果。 Dumitrescu-Hurlin 试验发现了谷物生产与温度和CO ₂排放之间的双向因果关系。此外，单向因果关系是从降雨量和农村人口到谷物生产。温度对谷物生产的不利影响可能对粮食安全造成严重影响。论文建议样本国政府应研究和开发耐热谷物品种，以应对气温对谷物生产的不利影响，保障粮食安全。