With 2.3 million individuals incarcerated in the United States, incarceration remains a pressing social influence on health. While risk factors for incarceration are known, research has been slow to identify protective factors. Characterizing adolescent protective and risk factors for incarceration outcomes can inform interventions to prevent incarceration. Using survey data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, we tested the influence of adolescent risk and protective factors for incarceration of young people. We used ordinal logistic regressions, investigating the relationship between adolescent characteristics (wave I, grades 7–12) with two outcomes: incarceration onset (no incarceration, onset of incarceration as a juvenile, and onset of incarceration as an adult) and incarceration frequency (never incarcerated, incarcerated once, incarcerated more than once) during adolescence and into adulthood (N = 12,136, wave IV, ages 24–32). Adolescent protective factors against incarceration onset and higher incarceration frequency centered on education, including a higher grade point average and a higher likelihood of having future plans to attend college. Risk factors included disruptive behavior, physical or sexual abuse in childhood, parental incarceration, and living with a stepfather figure. Stratified analyses suggested that Latinos may have unique risk profiles compared to African American and White youth. The educational system may be a locus for protective interventions promoting academic achievement and educational aspirations. Understanding both incarceration risk and protective factors may allow interventions to be tailored appropriately.

在美国有230万人被监禁，监禁仍然是对健康的紧迫社会影响。尽管已知有患上嵌顿的危险因素，但确定保护性因素的研究仍很缓慢。青春期对监禁结果的保护性和危险因素的特征可以为预防监禁提供信息。我们使用《全国青少年对成人健康的纵向研究》的调查数据，测试了青少年风险和保护因素对青少年监禁的影响。我们使用序数逻辑回归，研究青春期特征（第一波，7至12年级）与两个结局之间的关系：嵌顿发作（无嵌顿，少年时期嵌顿发作，成年期嵌顿发作）与嵌顿频率（从未被监禁，N  = 12,136，第IV浪，年龄24-32）。青少年对入狱的保护因素和更高的入狱频率以教育为中心，其中包括更高的平均绩点和更高的未来计划上大学的可能性。风险因素包括破坏性行为，童年时期遭受身体或性虐待，父母被监禁以及与继父同居。分层分析表明，与非裔美国人和白人青年相比，拉丁裔可能具有独特的风险状况。教育系统可能是促进学业成就和教育抱负的保护性干预措施的场所。了解患上嵌顿的风险和保护因素可以适当地调整干预措施。