The deep-water pipeline connector (DPC) is a key piece of equipment for the connection of multiple facilities located in different positions of the subsea production system. Its sealing reliability affects the safety of the production system directly during oil and gas exploration. Although the reliability assessment methods of the DPC have been investigated, previous studies have mostly been carried out under a single mechanical field. To determine the DPC reliability considering thermo-mechanical coupling, this paper establishes random load models of working pressure and temperature by using the Gaussian function, and the stochastic finite element model of the DPC is constructed to obtain the sealing performance under coupling conditions. A Kriging–Sobol sensitivity analysis method is developed to obtain the main variables influencing the sealing performance for the purpose of decreasing the computational cost of the ordinary sensitivity analysis. A reliability assessment approach based on the cross entropy-importance sampling-Kriging method is introduced to analyze the DPC reliability, and a sealing reliability assessment method of DPC under thermo-mechanical coupling conditions is finally formed. An engineering case is taken to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the reliability analysis accuracy of the proposed method is almost agreed with the Monte Carlo method, but the computational cost can be reduced 85.61%, which indicates that the proposed method provides designers with a fast method with an acceptable computational cost to assess the reliability of the DPC connector under coupling conditions.

深水管道连接器（DPC）是用于连接位于海底生产系统不同位置的多个设施的关键设备。其密封可靠性直接影响油气勘探过程中生产系统的安全性。尽管已经研究了DPC的可靠性评估方法，但是以前的研究大多是在单个机械领域进行的。为了确定考虑热力耦合的DPC可靠性，本文利用高斯函数建立了工作压力和温度的随机载荷模型，并建立了DPC的随机有限元模型来获得耦合条件下的密封性能。为了降低普通灵敏度分析的计算成本，开发了一种Kriging-Sobol灵敏度分析方法来获得影响密封性能的主要变量。介绍了一种基于交叉熵重要性采样-克里格法的可靠性评估方法，对DPC的可靠性进行了分析，最终形成了DPC在热力耦合条件下的密封可靠性评估方法。以工程案例为例，验证了所提方法的有效性。结果表明，所提方法的可靠性分析精度与蒙特卡洛方法基本吻合，但计算成本可降低85.61％，