The structural failure induced by the localized corrosion of steel members frequently occurred. In this study, a spatial statistical technique was developed to predict the time-dependent localized corrosion initiated at the boundary zone of steel and concrete. 20 specimens were prepared by embedding steel plate into concrete block, the accelerated corrosion tests of 600, 1200, 1800, and 2400 cycles were conducted to obtain the actual surface figuration with uniform and localized corrosion. After performing the regression tree analysis to divide the corrosion surface into localized and uniformed corrosion regions, a semi-variogram was used as the statistical technique to generate the corrosion prediction model, and an ordinary Kriging model to estimate the probable corrosion depth at arbitrary locations. The simulated results show that the probability distribution of corrosion depth and surface topography of both localized and uniform corrosion surfaces are highly consistent with the test. Also, the estimated surfaces owned a similar stress concentration effect to the actual surface, although their localized corrosion distributes differently. The prediction results of 2400–9600 cycles show that the top five SCF values of simulation almost within the 95% confidence interval of the fitting curves of test results. Therefore, the accuracy of the estimated corrosion surface is considered reasonable using the spatial statistical simulation method.

钢构件局部腐蚀引起的结构破坏经常发生。在这项研究中，开发了一种空间统计技术来预测在钢和混凝土边界区域开始的随时间变化的局部腐蚀。将钢板埋入混凝土块中制备了20个试样，进行了600、1200、1800和2400个循环的加速腐蚀试验，以获得具有均匀且局部腐蚀的实际表面形状。在执行回归树分析以将腐蚀表面划分为局部腐蚀区域和均匀腐蚀区域后，使用半变异函数作为统计技术来生成腐蚀预测模型，并使用普通克里格模型来估计任意位置的可能腐蚀深度。仿真结果表明，局部腐蚀和均匀腐蚀表面的腐蚀深度和表面形貌的概率分布与试验高度吻合。同样，尽管估计的表面局部腐蚀分布不同，但它们与实际表面具有相似的应力集中效应。2400–9600个周期的预测结果表明，仿真的前五个SCF值几乎在测试结果拟合曲线的95％置信区间内。因此，使用空间统计模拟方法可以将估计的腐蚀表面的精度视为合理。尽管局部腐蚀的分布不同，但估计的表面与实际表面具有相似的应力集中效应。2400–9600个周期的预测结果表明，仿真的前五个SCF值几乎在测试结果拟合曲线的95％置信区间内。因此，使用空间统计模拟方法可以将估计腐蚀表面的精度视为合理。尽管局部腐蚀的分布不同，但估计的表面与实际表面具有相似的应力集中效应。2400–9600个周期的预测结果表明，仿真的前五个SCF值几乎在测试结果拟合曲线的95％置信区间内。因此，使用空间统计模拟方法可以将估计腐蚀表面的精度视为合理。