We investigate economic causes of the rising support of populist parties in industrialised countries. Looking at Germany, we find that exposure to imports from low-wage countries increases the support for nationalist parties between 1987–2009, while increasing exports have the opposite effect. The net effect translates into increasing support of the right-populist Alternative for Germany party after its emergence in 2013. Individual data from the German Socio-Economic Panel reveal that low-skilled manufacturing workers’ political preferences are most responsive to trade exposure. Using a novel approach to causal mediation analysis, we identify trade-induced labour market adjustments as an economic mechanism causing the voting response to international trade.

中文翻译：

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贸易对工人和选民的影响

我们调查工业化国家民粹主义政党支持率上升的经济原因。看看德国，我们发现在 1987 年至 2009 年间，从低工资国家进口增加了对民族主义政党的支持，而增加出口则产生了相反的效果。净效应转化为在 2013 年出现后，右翼民粹主义德国另类选择党的支持越来越多。德国社会经济小组的个人数据显示，低技能制造业工人的政治偏好对贸易风险最敏感。使用一种新颖的因果中介分析方法，我们将贸易引发的劳动力市场调整确定为一种经济机制，导致对国际贸易的投票反应。