In this study, projected changes in climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were investigated over Middle East and North Africa. Changes in the daily maximum and minimum temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices were analyzed for the end of the 21st century compared to the reference period 1971–2000 using regional climate model simulations. Regional climate model, RegCM4.4 was used to downscale two different global climate model outputs to 50 km resolution under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results generally indicate an intensification of temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices with increasing radiative forcing. In particular, an increase in annual minimum of daily minimum temperatures is more pronounced over the northern part of Mediterranean Basin and tropics. High increase in warm nights and warm spell duration all over the region with a pronounced increase in tropics are projected for the period of 2071–2100 together with decrease or no change in cold extremes. According to the results, a decrease in total wet-day precipitation and increase in dry spells are expected for the end of the century.

中文翻译：

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预计在CORDEX-MENA域上的极端温度和降水指数变化

在这项研究中，对中东和北非的气候变化检测和指数专家组定义的气候极端指数的预计变化进行了调查。使用区域气候模型模拟，分析了21世纪末与1971-2000年参考期相比，每日最高和最低基于温度和降水的极端指数的变化。在RCP4.5和RCP8.5方案下，RegCM4.4区域气候模型用于将两个不同的全球气候模型输出缩减至50 km分辨率。结果通常表明，基于温度和降水的极端指数随着辐射强迫的增加而增强。特别是在地中海盆地和热带地区的北部，每日最低温度的年最低最小值的增加更为明显。预计在2071年至2100年期间，整个地区的暖夜和暖拼持续时间将大量增加，热带地区将显着增加，而极端寒冷的天气将减少或保持不变。根据结果​​，到本世纪末，预计湿日总降水量将减少，旱季将增加。