Many species are expected to be at risk from climate change, whereas others may not be threatened because the projected change will occur within their physiological tolerance limits. Particularly, lizards of the genus Uromastyx, known for their narrow climatic and habitat requirements and limited dispersal abilities, might face local or global extinction due to current climate change. To address this problematic situation, we examined the potential effect of climate change on the distribution of 15 Uromastyx species (Merrem, 1820) using Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios for the year 2070. Here, we also tested the role of protected areas (PAs) in the conservation of Uromastyx species. According to our models, climate change could essentially threaten up to 75% of the studied species, while 25% of species may resist or even benefit from global warming. Furthermore, taxa with relatively broader distributions are more protected than taxa with smaller distributions suggesting that conservation efforts should be focused on a local scale. Future vulnerability assessment of individual species to climate change should consider integrating the physiological and behavioral plasticity of the taxa studied to allow mechanistic models to evaluate climate change effects on these species.

预计许多物种将受到气候变化的威胁，而其他物种可能不会受到威胁，因为预计的变化将在其生理耐受范围内发生。特别是，由于气候和生境要求狭窄以及扩散能力有限而闻名的Uromastyx蜥蜴可能由于当前的气候变化而面临局部或全球灭绝。为了解决这个问题，我们使用生态位模型（ENM）在RCP 2.6和8.5排放情景下（2070年）研究了气候变化对15种Uromastyx物种（Merrem，1820）的分布的潜在影响。在这里，我们还测试了保护区在保护Uromatyx中的作用物种。根据我们的模型，气候变化可能实质上威胁着多达75％的被研究物种，而25％的物种可能抵制甚至受益于全球变暖。此外，分布较广的分类单元比分布较小的分类单元受到更多保护，这表明保护工作应集中在地方规模上。将来对单个物种对气候变化的脆弱性评估应考虑整合所研究的分类单元的生理和行为可塑性，以使机理模型能够评估气候变化对这些物种的影响。