Vietnam is a major rice producer, and much of the rice grown is concentrated in the Red River Delta (RRD) and the Mekong River Delta (MRD). While the two deltas are highly productive regions, they are vulnerable to natural hazards and the effects of human-induced environmental change. To show that the processes and issues affecting food security are reinforcing, interdependent and operating at multiple scales, we used a systems-thinking approach to represent the major linkages between anthropogenic land-use and natural hazards and elaborate on how the drivers and environmental processes interact and influence rice growing area, rice yield and rice quality in the two deltas. On a local scale, demand for aquaculture and alternative crops, urban expansion, dike development, sand mining and groundwater extraction decrease rice production in the two deltas. Regionally, upstream dam construction impacts rice production in the two deltas despite being distally situated. Separately, the localized natural hazards that have adversely affected rice production include droughts, floods and typhoons. Outbreaks of pests and diseases are also common. Climate-change-induced sea level rise is a global phenomenon that will affect agricultural productivity. Notably, anthropogenic developments meant to improve agricultural productivity or increase economic growth can create many unwanted environmental consequences such as an increase in flooding, saltwater intrusion and land subsidence, which in turn decreases rice production and quality. In addition, natural hazards may amplify the problems created by human activities. Our meta-analysis highlights the ways in which a systems-thinking approach can yield more nuanced perspectives to tackle “wicked” and interrelated environmental challenges. Given that deltas worldwide are globally significant for food production and are highly stressed and degraded, a systems-thinking approach can be applied to provide a holistic and contextualized overview of the threats faced in each location.

中文翻译：

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越南湄公河和红河三角洲土地利用变化与自然灾害对水稻农业的相互作用

越南是主要的稻米生产国，种植的大部分稻米集中在红河三角洲（RRD）和湄公河三角洲（MRD）。尽管这两个三角洲是高产区，但它们很容易受到自然灾害和人为环境变化的影响。为了表明影响粮食安全的过程和问题正在增强，相互依存并在多个层面上运作，我们使用系统思考的方法来代表人为土地利用与自然灾害之间的主要联系，并详细说明驱动因素与环境过程之间的相互作用并影响两个三角洲的稻米种植面积，稻米产量和稻米质量。在地方范围内，对水产养殖和替代作物的需求，城市扩张，堤防发展，采砂和开采地下水会降低两个三角洲的稻米产量。在区域上，上游大坝建设尽管位于偏远地区，但仍影响了两个三角洲的稻谷生产。另外，对水稻生产产生不利影响的局部自然灾害包括干旱，洪水和台风。病虫害也很普遍。气候变化引起的海平面上升是一种全球性现象，将影响农业生产力。值得注意的是，旨在提高农业生产力或促进经济增长的人为发展会造成许多不良的环境后果，例如洪水泛滥，盐水入侵和土地沉降增加，进而降低稻谷产量和质量。另外，自然灾害可能加剧人类活动造成的问题。我们的荟萃分析突出了系统思考方法可以产生更细微差别的观点的方式，以应对“邪恶的”和相关的环境挑战。鉴于全球三角洲对全球粮食生产具有重要意义，并且高度压力和退化程度很高，因此可以采用系统思考的方法来全面，全面地了解每个地点面临的威胁。