This paper examines the effects of the number of active COVID19 cases on the wholesale prices of diesel and unleaded petrol (gasoline) across seven Australian states using daily data from 1 Jan 2020–11 September 2020. Our results indicate that statistically significant asymmetries with respect to COVID19 are observed in both wholesale unleaded petrol and diesel prices in all seven markets. When crude oil prices are falling substantially, the number of active COVID19 cases is highly significant in a negative relationship with petrol prices. However, when oil prices are rising (or not falling substantially), the negative effects of such a pandemic on fuel prices perplexingly disappear or become smaller. We find that the negative effects of COVID19 on diesel prices are more pronounced in more population-dense capital cities (i.e. Sydney and Melbourne). It is surprising to observe that the effects of COVID19 pandemic are driven by changes in oil prices: rising oil prices can substantially reduce the negative effect of this health pandemic on fuel prices. Our findings complement concerns from the national competition commission that while fuel prices have recently fallen to decades-long lows, fuel profit margins are at record high levels.

本文使用2020年1月1日至2020年9月11日的每日数据，研究了活跃的COVID19病例数对澳大利亚七个州的柴油和无铅汽油（汽油）批发价格的影响。在所有七个市场的无铅汽油和柴油批发价格中均观察到COVID19。当原油价格大幅下跌时，活跃的COVID19案例数量与汽油价格成反比，因此非常重要。但是，当石油价格上涨（或没有实质性下跌）时，这种大流行对燃料价格的负面影响就令人困惑地消失或变小。我们发现，在人口密集的首府城市，COVID19对柴油价格的负面影响更加明显（即 悉尼和墨尔本）。令人惊讶地观察到，COVID19大流行的影响是由油价变化驱动的：油价上涨可以大大减少这种健康大流行对燃料价格的负面影响。我们的发现补充了国家竞争委员会的担忧，即尽管燃油价格最近跌至数十年来的最低点，但燃油利润率却达到了创纪录的高水平。