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The Unintended Costs and Unfulfilled Promises of Concurrent Elections: A Natural Experiment on Turnout and Invalid Voting
East European Politics and Societies ( IF 1.225 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-10 , DOI: 10.1177/0888325421989804
Jakub Lysek 1 , Karel Kouba 2
Affiliation  

Holding two second-order elections simultaneously is expected to increase electoral participation. We exploit a natural experiment in which one group of Czech precincts was “as if” randomly assigned to holding subnational elections concurrently with senatorial ones. Using a unique data set containing variables on more than thirteen thousand precincts in five elections between 2000 and 2016, we detect a modest effect of concurrency only in the first election but no or inconsistent effect in the four subsequent contests. Furthermore, we report a strong effect of concurrency on invalid voting. We check for robustness using difference-in-differences design and matching techniques. Incongruent with existing theories, concurrency does not deliver on its promises and may come at a substantial cost to political representation. The surprising null effect on turnout is attributable to analyzing the effect of concurrency of the less salient on more salient elections.



中文翻译:

并发选举的意外成本和未兑现的承诺:投票率和无效投票的自然实验

同时举行两次二次选举预计将增加选举的参与度。我们利用了一个自然实验,其中一组捷克地区“好像”被随机分配给与地方选举同时举行的地方选举。在2000年至2016年之间的五个选举中,我们使用包含变量的独特数据集来对一万三千个选区进行了研究,我们仅在第一次选举中发现并发的适度影响,而在随后的四场竞赛中却没有或存在不一致的影响。此外,我们报告了并发对无效投票的强大影响。我们使用差异设计和匹配技术检查鲁棒性。与现有理论不一致,并发不能兑现其诺言,可能会给政治代表制带来巨大的代价。

更新日期:2021-05-11
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