This paper presents a methodology to deal with the randomness associated to ecological modelling. Data variability makes it necessary to analyse the impact of random perturbations on the fitted model parameters. We conduct such analysis for the logistic growth model with a certain sigmoid functional form of the carrying capacity, which was proposed in the literature for the study of parasite growth during infection. We show how the probability distributions of the parameters are set via the maximum entropy principle. Then the random variable transformation method allows for computing the density function of the population.

中文翻译：

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处理生态模型中的可变性：随机非自治逻辑种群模型的分析

本文提出了一种处理与生态建模相关的随机性的方法。数据可变性使得有必要分析随机扰动对拟合模型参数的影响。我们对具有一定承载能力的 sigmoid 函数形式的逻辑生长模型进行了此类分析，该模型在文献中提出用于研究感染期间的寄生虫生长。我们展示了如何通过最大熵原理设置参数的概率分布。然后随机变量变换方法允许计算总体的密度函数。