The last two decades have seen growing use of phylogenetic patterns to test hypotheses predicting the success of introduced species. Nearly all of these tests have focused on hypotheses pertaining to phylogenetic relatedness between introduced species and those of the recipient community, largely neglecting hypotheses regarding phylogenetic relationships in the source region. We synthesize hypotheses regarding how phylogenetic relationships of both recipient and source regions together influence establishment success. We also detail how best to account for differences in source communities within phylogenetic frameworks of invasion. Existing studies have predominantly focused on the environmental filtering and competition-relatedness hypotheses, which deal with relatedness to the recipient community. We discuss how these recipient–region hypotheses can be integrated with three hypotheses focused on the relatedness between an introduced species and the source community in which it originated: the evolutionary imbalance, universal tradeoff and competitive constraint hypotheses. We detail important issues that arise when testing alternative hypotheses and interpreting results. We highlight a lack of tests of synthetic phylogenetic hypotheses including both the source and recipient community phylogenetic structure, as well as important covariates such as propagule pressure. Such synthetic tests may be valuable for identifying general phylogenetic patterns in establishment success, predicting future invasions, and for stimulating further exploration of the underlying mechanisms of invasibility. We conclude with recommendations for future studies that use phylogenetic relationships to predict invasions: including source and recipient communities, using complete phylogenies and accounting for phylogenetic uncertainty, considering multiple stages of invasion and conducting analyses across spatial and phylogenetic scales where possible.

中文翻译：

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我们去过哪里，我们要去哪里：来源社区在从系统发育关系预测建立成功中的重要性

在过去的二十年里，人们越来越多地使用系统发育模式来检验预测引进物种成功的假设。几乎所有这些测试都集中在与引入物种和受体群落之间的系统发育相关性有关的假设上，而很大程度上忽略了关于源区域系统发育关系的假设。我们综合了关于受体和来源区域的系统发育关系如何共同影响建立成功的假设。我们还详细说明了如何最好地解释入侵系统发育框架内源群落的差异。现有的研究主要集中在环境过滤和竞争相关性假设上，这些假设涉及与接受者社区的相关性。我们讨论了这些受体-区域假设如何与三个假设相结合，这些假设侧重于引入的物种与其起源的源群落之间的相关性：进化不平衡、普遍权衡和竞争约束假设。我们详细介绍了在测试替代假设和解释结果时出现的重要问题。我们强调缺乏对合成系统发育假设的测试，包括来源和受体群落系统发育结构，以及重要的协变量，如繁殖体压力。这样的综合测试对于确定建立成功的一般系统发育模式、预测未来的入侵以及促进对潜在入侵机制的进一步探索可能是有价值的。