Lock-in is defined as the tendency to continue with an inefficient decision or project proposal. The front-end phase is critical to project success, yet most studies have focused on lock-in in the implementation phase. Moreover, little is known about the way in which decision-makers perceive the risk of lock-in. In this paper we identify determinants of lock-in in the front-end phase and we reveal decision-makers’ perceptions of risk of lock-in. Our findings show that risk attitudes towards lock-in vary with the level of risk aversion. However, this is not sufficiently acute to drive the level of regret needed to avoid lock-in. This implies that decision-makers do not accurately assess the risk of lock-in and as such their risk perceptions are a mediating factor in the formation of lock-in. Based on escalation of commitment, path dependency, and prospect theory, the main contribution lies in providing a more comprehensive understanding of lock-in in the front-end phase.

锁定被定义为继续低效的决策或项目建议的趋势。前端阶段对于项目成功至关重要，但是大多数研究都集中在实施阶段的锁定上。此外，对于决策者感知锁定风险的方式知之甚少。在本文中，我们确定了前端阶段锁定的决定因素，并揭示了决策者对锁定风险的看法。我们的研究结果表明，锁定风险的态度随风险规避程度的不同而不同。但是，这还不够严重，不足以推动避免锁定所需的后悔程度。这意味着决策者无法准确评估锁定的风险，因此，他们的风险感知是锁定形成的中介因素。基于承诺升级，路径依赖，