Climate change is inherently linked to long-term non-stationary changes in the characteristics and frequency of weather patterns. The present study attempts to identify the statistical changes of weather patterns in Athens Greece, from the comparative assessment of 96-h backward trajectories between historic (1980–2009) and future (2020–2049) climatology derived from the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Arrival heights at 750 m, 1500 m, and 3000 m above sea level are considered to account for the impact of the planetary boundary layer and the lower free troposphere. The analysis of the historic period yields 7 dominant patterns for all heights determined independently, with similar spatial characteristics but varying frequency of occurrence. The classification of backward trajectories under future climate using the same historic clusters reveals percentage changes from locally short-distance travelling patterns to longer-distance ones with a predominant northbound direction. As a second experiment, backward trajectories are re-clustered independently reaching again the same type of clusters but with observable changes in the cluster origins and trajectory lengths.

气候变化与天气模式的特征和频率的长期非平稳变化具有内在联系。本研究试图通过对IPCC RCP4.5和RCP8得出的历史（1980-2009）和未来（2020-2049）气候学之间的96小时向后轨迹进行比较评估，来确定希腊雅典天气模式的统计变化。 .5场景。海拔750 m，1500 m和3000 m处的到达高度被认为是对行星边界层和较低对流层的影响。对历史时期的分析得出了针对所有高度独立确定的7种主要模式，具有相似的空间特征，但发生频率有所不同。使用相同的历史集群对未来气候下的后向轨迹进行分类，揭示了从局部短途旅行模式向以北向为主的长途旅行模式的百分比变化。作为第二个实验，后向轨迹被独立地重新聚类，再次到达相同类型的星团，但是星团的起点和轨迹长度发生了可观的变化。