ABSTRACT

We sometimes strive to achieve difficult goals when our evidence suggests that success is unlikely—not just because it will require strength of will, but because we are targets of prejudice and discrimination or because success will require unusual ability. Optimism about one’s prospects can be useful for persevering in these cases. With that said, excessive optimism can be dangerous; when our evidence is unfavourable, we should be at most agnostic about whether we will succeed. This paper explores the nature and rational significance of agnostic practical commitments. Most importantly, the rationality of striving against the odds can depend on investing in a plan for failure—a plan B. I aim to make headway on an account of what backup plans are, how they are related to primary plans, and whether the standard norms of plan rationality apply to our agnostic commitments.

摘要

当我们的证据表明不太可能成功时，我们有时会努力实现困难的目标——不仅因为它需要坚强的意志，还因为我们是偏见和歧视的目标，或者因为成功需要非凡的能力。在这些情况下，对自己的前景持乐观态度可能有助于坚持下去。话虽如此，过度乐观可能是危险的。当我们的证据不利时，我们最多应该不知道我们是否会成功。本文探讨了不可知的实际承诺的性质和理性意义。最重要的是，努力克服困难的合理性可能取决于投资于失败的计划——B计划。我的目标是在考虑什么是备用计划、它们与主要计划的关系方面取得进展，