Great technological leaps in computational capacity and machine autonomy have increased the business community’s expectations of simulators. In joining the conversation on simulators’ ability to reproduce the reality of actual, possible, past, and future worlds, this paper draws on the literature in analytical philosophy on counterfactuals. It identifies three functions of simulations (training, advising, and forecasting) and further inquires into their ontological and epistemological assumptions to show how they limit the quest for reality of higher-performance simulators in each of these three areas. This argument is not only meant to contribute to adjusting scholars’ and practitioners’ expectations and uses of simulations; it also calls for a more in-depth and critical study of the social implications of relying on them.

计算能力和机器自治方面的巨大技术飞跃提高了商业界对模拟器的期望。在参加关于模拟器重现现实世界，现实世界，过去世界和未来世界的能力的讨论时，本文借鉴了关于反事实的分析哲学方面的文献。它确定了模拟的三个功能（训练，建议和预测），并进一步询问了它们的本体论和认识论假设，以显示它们如何在这三个领域中的每一个中限制对高性能模拟器的追求。这一论点不仅旨在帮助调整学者和从业者对模拟的期望和使用；它还要求对依赖它们的社会影响进行更深入和批判的研究。