Abstract

The results of the forecasting of quasi-stationary and transient solar wind streams velocity for a period from May to December 2010 are presented. The velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind streams on the near-Earth orbit was calculated with the empiric model based on an analysis of solar images obtained in the extreme ultraviolet. The velocity and arrival time of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections were predicted with the Drag-Based Model. The results of the forecast of the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind streams were used as a parameter of the interplanetary medium through which the transient streams propagate and with which they interact. For the period of May–December 2010, 94 coronal mass ejections were selected from the databases, which were updated in near-real time. Analysis of the forecast results has shown that 67% of the selected interplanetary coronal mass ejections had a predicted velocity of less than 400 km/s, and 96% of them are associated with a quiet geomagnetic conditions (Dst > –30 nT). The forecast of quasi-stationary solar wind streams is improved by the addition of the prediction of interplanetary coronal mass ejections. For the period from May to December 2010, the standard deviation between the solar wind stream velocities measured on the ACE spacecraft and the predicted values, which take into account both quasi-stationary and transient streams, is 82 km/s, and the correlation coefficient is 0.6.

中文翻译：

---

基于2010年太阳观测的准平稳和瞬态太阳风预报

摘要

给出了2010年5月至2010年12月期间准静态和暂态太阳风流速度的预测结果。基于经验模型，通过分析在极端紫外线下获得的太阳图像，利用经验模型计算了近地轨道上准静态太阳风的速度。利用基于阻力的模型预测了行星际冠状物质抛射的速度和到达时间。准静态太阳风的速度预测结果被用作行星际介质的参数，瞬态流通过该介质传播并与它们相互作用。在2010年5月至12月期间，从数据库中选择了94次日冕物质抛射，并对其进行了近实时更新。Dst > –30 nT）。通过增加行星际冠状物质抛射的预测，可以改善准静止太阳风的预报。在2010年5月至2010年12月期间，在ACE航天器上测得的太阳风流速度与预测值之间的标准偏差为82 km / s，其中考虑了准静止流和瞬变流，并且相关系数是0.6。