This study describes an integrated modelling approach to better understand the trophic status of the Montargil reservoir (southern Portugal) under climate change scenarios. The SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2 models were applied to the basin and reservoir, respectively, for simulating water and nutrient dynamics while considering one climatic scenario and two decadal timelines (2025–2034 and 2055–2064). Model simulations showed that the dissolved oxygen concentration in the reservoir's hypolimnion is expected to decrease by 60% in both decadal timelines, while the chlorophyll-a concentration in the reservoir's epiliminion is expected to increase by 25%. The total phosphorus concentration (TP) is predicted to increase in the water column surface by 63% and in the hypolimion by 90% during the 2030 timeline. These results are even more severe during the 2060 timeline. Under this climate change scenario, the reservoir showed a eutrophic state during 70–80% of both timelines. Even considering measures that involve decreases in 30 to 35% of water use, the eutrophic state is not expected to improve.

这项研究描述了一种集成的建模方法，可以更好地了解气候变化情景下的蒙塔吉尔水库（葡萄牙南部）的营养状况。SWAT和CE-QUAL-W2模型分别应用于流域和水库，以模拟水和养分动态，同时考虑一种气候情景和两个年代际时间表（2025-2034和2055-2064）。模型仿真表明，在两个年代际上，储层低层水体中的溶解氧浓度预计将降低60％，而储层中低层水体中的叶绿素a浓度预计将增加25％。据预测，在2030年的时间轴内，水柱表面的总磷浓度（TP）将会增加63％，次高脂血症的总磷浓度将增加90％。在2060年的时间表中，这些结果更加严重。在这种气候变化情景下，在两个时间表的70％至80％期间，水库都处于富营养状态。即使考虑采取减少用水量30％至35％的措施，富营养状态也不会得到改善。