This research assesses the streamflow response of Werie River to climate change. Baseline (1980–2009) climate data of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature were analyzed using delta based statistical downscaling approach in R software packages to predict future 90-year (2010–2099) periods under two emission scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5, indicating medium and extremely high emission scenarios respectively. Generated future climate variables indicate Werie will experience a significant increase in precipitation, and maximum and minimum air temperature for both RCPs. Further, Water and Energy Transfer between Soil, Plants, and Atmosphere (WetSpa) was applied to assess the water balance of Werie River. The WetSpa model reproduced the streamflow well with performance statistics values of R² = 0.84 and 0.85, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency = 0.72 and 0.72, and model bias = –0.14 and –0.15 for the calibration data set of 1999–2010 and validation data of 2011–2014, respectively. Finally, by taking the downscaled future climate variables as input, WetSpa future prediction shows that there will be an increase in the Werie catchment mean annual streamflow up to 29.6% for RCP 4.5 and 35.6% for RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline period.

这项研究评估了韦里河对气候变化的径流响应。在R软件包中使用基于增量的统计降尺度方法分析了基线（1980–2009）降水，最高和最低温度的气候数据，以预测两种代表性排放路径（RCP）情况下未来90年（2010–2099）的时期4.5和RCP 8.5，分别表示中等和极高排放情景。未来产生的气候变量表明，韦里将经历两个RCP的降水以及最高和最低气温的显着增加。此外，还应用了土壤，植物和大气之间的水和能量转移（WetSpa）来评估韦里河的水平衡。WetSpa模型使用R的性能统计值很好地重现了流。对于1999-2010年的校准数据集和2011-2014年的验证数据，分别为² = 0.84和0.85，纳什–萨克利夫效率= 0.72和0.72，模型偏差= –0.14和–0.15。最后，通过将缩减后的未来气候变量作为输入，WetSpa的未来预测表明，与基准期相比，RCP 4.5的Werie流域年均流量将增加至29.6％，RCP 8.5的年均流量将增加35.6％。