Climate change impact on the hydrology of the Betwa river basin, located in the semi-arid region of Central India, was assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), driven by hypothetical scenarios and Model of Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) Global Circulation Model projections. SWAT-Calibration and Uncertainty Programs (SWAT-CUP) was used for calibration and validation of SWAT using multi-site streamflow data. The coefficient of determination, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio and percent bias during calibration and validation period varied from 0.83–0.92, 0.6–0.91, 0.3–0.63 and −19.8–19.3, respectively. MIROC5 projections revealed an increase in annual mean temperature in the range of 0.7–0.9 °C, 1.2–2.0 °C and 1.1–3.1 °C during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Rainfall is likely to increase in the range of 0.4–9.1% and 5.7–15.3% during the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Simulation results indicated 3.8–29% and 12–48% increase in mean annual surface runoff during the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Similarly, an increase of 0.2–3.0%, 2.6–4.2% and 3.5–6.2% in mean annual evapotranspiration is likely during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. These results could be used for developing suitable climate change adaptation plans for the river basin.

气候变化对位于印度中部半干旱地区的贝特瓦河流域水文学的影响，是通过土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）进行评估的，该工具由假设情景和气候多学科研究模型第5版驱动（ MIROC5）全球流通模型预测。SWAT校准和不确定性程序（SWAT-CUP）用于使用多站点流数据对SWAT进行校准和验证。在校准和验证期间，测定系数，纳什-萨特克利夫效率，RMSE观测标准偏差比和偏差百分比分别为0.83-0.92、0.6-0.91、0.3-0.63和-19.8-19.3。MIROC5的预测显示，到2020年代，2050年代和2080年代，年平均温度分别升高0.7-0.9°C，1.2-2.0°C和1.1-3.1°C。在2050年代和2080年代，降雨量可能分别增加0.4-9.1％和5.7-15.3％。模拟结果表明，在2050年代和2080年代，年平均地表径流量分别增加了3.8–29％和12–48％。同样，在2020年代，2050年代和2080年代，平均年蒸散量可能分别增加0.2-3.0％，2.6-4.2％和3.5-6.2％。这些结果可用于为流域制定适当的气候变化适应计划。分别是2050年代和2080年代。这些结果可用于为流域制定适当的气候变化适应计划。分别是2050年代和2080年代。这些结果可用于为流域制定适当的气候变化适应计划。