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Rapidly intensified, long duration North Indian Ocean tropical cyclones: Mesoscale downscaling and validation
Atmospheric Research ( IF 5.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-10 , DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105678
Arpita Munsi , Amit Kesarkar , Jyoti Bhate , Abhishek Panchal , Kasturi Singh , Govindan Kutty , Ramkumar Giri

High-resolution (6 km × 6 km) reanalyses (HRR) have been generated using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW) and three-dimensional variational-Ensemble Kalman Filter (3DEnKF). The six-hourly cyclic downscaling methodology has been used to develop HRR for simulating the life cycle of three rapidly intensified long-life tropical cyclones (TCs) viz. Fani, Ockhi, and Luban over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). The available surface and upper-air observations, radiance data, and scatterometer/radiometer wind data have been assimilated. The simulated maximum surface wind (intensity), minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), and cyclone tracks have been compared to the International Best Track Archive For Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset. During the maximum intensity stage, the model successfully simulated the maximum surface wind variation and drop of MSLP. The surface winds validated using the Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA) buoys observations showed a better correlation at the cyclonic stage and severe cyclonic stage compared to the very severe cyclonic stage. Comparing wind distribution at 850 hPa to the 5th Generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA5) showed that the analysis successfully captured more intense TC stages. The significant wind structure features in the surface, lower, middle, and upper tropospheric observed by Scatsat-1 and INSAT3D/3DR satellites have been simulated by analysis. The rapid intensifications (RI) of considered TCs were successfully simulated in the analysis. The simulated and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) accumulated rainfall distribution was found to be collocated, especially over heavy rainfall regions.



中文翻译:

快速加剧,持续时间长的北印度洋热带气旋:中尺度降尺度和验证

使用高级研究天气研究和预报模型(WRF-ARW)和三维变分集合卡尔曼滤波(3DEnKF),已经生成了高分辨率(6 km×6 km)重新分析(HRR)。六小时循环降尺度方法已用于开发HRR,以模拟三个快速强化的长寿命热带气旋(TC)的生命周期,即。Fani,Ockhi和Luban在北印度洋(NIO)上空。现有的地面和高空观测,辐射数据以及散射仪/辐射仪风数据已被同化。已将模拟的最大表面风(强度),最小海平面压力(MSLP)和气旋路径与国际气候管理最佳路径存档(IBTrACS)数据集进行了比较。在最大强度阶段 该模型成功模拟了最大表面风的变化和MSLP的下降。使用非亚澳-澳大利亚季风分析和预测(RAMA)浮标的研究系泊阵列进行验证的地表风显示,与非常严重的气旋期相比,在气旋期和严重气旋期的相关性更好。将850 hPa的风分布与第五代欧洲中距离天气预报再分析中心(ERA5)进行比较,结果表明该分析成功捕获了更强烈的TC阶段。通过分析,模拟了由Scatsat-1和INSAT3D / 3DR卫星观测到的对流层中,下,中和上层的重要风结构特征。在分析中成功模拟了所考虑的TC的快速增强(RI)。

更新日期:2021-05-18
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