Within the humanitarian sector, there is a pressing need to scale up anticipatory action as climate change-related disasters increase. This article evaluates forecasts relating to extreme weather events – extreme rainfall, tropical cyclones, river flooding and storm surge – in Myanmar and the Philippines to assess the feasibility of using such forecasts to develop early warning systems and responses. To make best use of limited extant data, a variety of methods (reliability diagrams, hit rates, false alarm ratios, correlations) are employed. We review the skill of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) tropical cyclone forecasts and find that whilst errors in cyclone position are relatively small, forecasting intensity is more difficult. When a tropical cyclone has formed, the probabilities provided in the ECMWF track forecast are highly reliable and only slightly overconfident. A tropical cyclone activity product is relatively reliable for forecasts less than a week ahead for North Indian Ocean cyclones affecting Myanmar, but becomes very overconfident beyond this. Looking at flood forecasting models, a comparison of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS, produced by the ECMWF and the European Commission as part of the Copernicus Emergency Management Services) with the Global Flood Forecasting Information System (GLOFFIS, produced by Deltares) demonstrates that both GloFAS and GLOFFIS have difficulty simulating 1 in 2 year return period flows or higher, although GloFAS performance is better than GLOFFIS. GloFAS reforecasts show significantly overconfident probabilities over Myanmar where discharge observations are available, whilst the lack of a GLOFFIS reforecast prevents evaluation of this forecast system directly. Evaluation of the ten-day operational storm surge forecast (the Global Storm Surge Information System, GLOSSIS) produced by Deltares was attempted but lack of any data prevented assessment. These findings present valuable insights into how well forecasts perform, which is crucial information for establishing effective humanitarian action mechanisms.

在人道主义部门内，迫切需要随着与气候变化有关的灾难的增加而扩大预期行动。本文评估了缅甸和菲律宾与极端天气事件（极端降雨，热带气旋，河流洪水和风暴潮）有关的预测，以评估使用此类预测开发预警系统和应对措施的可行性。为了充分利用有限的现存数据，采用了多种方法（可靠性图，命中率，误报率，相关性）。我们回顾了欧洲中距离天气预报中心（ECMWF）的热带气旋预报技术，发现尽管气旋位置误差相对较小，但预报强度却更加困难。当热带气旋形成时，ECMWF跟踪预测中提供的概率是高度可靠的，并且仅稍有过分自信。热带气旋活动产品对于影响缅甸的北印度洋气旋的预报不到一周就相对可靠，但超出此范围后，人们就会变得过于自信。从洪水预报模型来看，全球洪水意识系统（ECMWF和欧洲委员会作为哥白尼应急管理服务的一部分生产的GloFAS）与全球洪水预报信息系统（Deltares生产的GLOFFIS）进行了比较。尽管GloFAS和GLOFFIS的性能均优于GLOFFIS，但GloFAS和GLOFFIS都难以模拟2年或一年以上的回收期流量。GloFAS的重新预测显示了在缅甸有放水观测的情况下过度自信的概率，而缺少GLOFFIS的重新预测则无法直接评估此预测系统。曾尝试对Deltares制作的十天运行风暴潮预报（全球风暴潮信息系统，GLOSSIS）进行评估，但由于缺乏任何数据，因此无法进行评估。这些发现提供了有关预报执行情况的宝贵见解，这对于建立有效的人道主义行动机制至关重要。曾尝试由Deltares生产GLOSSIS，但由于缺乏任何数据，无法进行评估。这些发现提供了有关预报执行情况的宝贵见解，这对于建立有效的人道主义行动机制至关重要。曾尝试由Deltares生产GLOSSIS，但由于缺乏任何数据，无法进行评估。这些发现提供了有关预报执行情况的宝贵见解，这对于建立有效的人道主义行动机制至关重要。