Current land-use trends in Kenya's montane forest ecosystems show that land uses are changing fast due to natural and anthropogenic factors and these changes could have devastating effects on the environment. One such montane forest is the transboundary Mt. Elgon forest located in western Kenya. This study analysed trends in land use–land cover changes in Mt. Elgon forest ecosystem over the last 45 years. Landsat imageries downloaded from the United States Geological Survey archives were used to assess land use–land cover changes between 1973 and 2019 by applying supervised classification using Arc GIS 10.5. The IDRISI Selva 17.0 was used to calculate area under different land uses and generate change maps. The major Land Use–Land Cover (LULC) classified were mixed farming, natural forests, planted forests, bamboo forest, fallow land, tea plantation. The landsat images had an average overall classification accuracy of 87.12% and kappa coefficient (K) of 0.84. The kappa coefficient was rated as substantial and the classified images qualified for further analysis. Results established that there was an 18% decline in the natural forest cover between 1977 and 2019. There was a similar decline of 15.19% in bamboo forest cover. Plantation forests established in the 1990's also showed a 15.6% decline between 1999 and 2019. There was, however, a 29% increase in mixed farming, a 10% increase in fallow land and a 0.13% increase in tea plantations. These changes in land uses and land cover call for an urgent need to develop sustainable management plans to protect and conserve the Mt. Elgon forest ecosystem. Sustainable land management strategies to be used in the future may include education on the significance of the forest ecosystem, community participation in sustainable utilisation of forest eco-services and the introduction of sustainable alternative sources of livelihoods, such as bee farming.

中文翻译：

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评估肯尼亚埃尔贡山森林生态系统的土地利用和土地覆盖变化

目前肯尼亚山地森林生态系统的土地利用趋势表明，由于自然和人为因素，土地利用正在迅速变化，这些变化可能对环境造成破坏性影响。一种这样的山地森林是位于肯尼亚西部的跨界埃尔贡山森林。本研究分析了过去 45 年埃尔贡山森林生态系统土地利用-土地覆盖变化的趋势。通过使用 Arc GIS 10.5 应用监督分类，从美国地质调查局档案下载的 Landsat 图像用于评估 1973 年至 2019 年期间的土地利用 - 土地覆盖变化。IDRISI Selva 17.0 用于计算不同土地利用下的面积并生成变化图。分类的主要土地利用-土地覆盖 (LULC) 为混合耕作、天然林、人工林、竹林、休耕地、茶园。陆地卫星图像的平均总体分类准确率为 87.12%，kappa 系数 (K) 为 0.84。kappa 系数被评为实质性，分类图像符合进一步分析的条件。结果表明，1977 年至 2019 年间，天然林覆盖率下降了 18%。竹林覆盖率也出现了 15.19% 的类似下降。1990 年代建立的人工林在 1999 年至 2019 年间也下降了 15.6%。然而，混合耕作增加了 29%，休耕地增加了 10%，茶园增加了 0.13%。土地利用和土地覆盖的这些变化迫切需要制定可持续管理计划，以保护和养护埃尔贡山森林生态系统。