Following Kahneman and Tversky, studies such as those by Haigh and List, Ert and Erev and Mukherjee et al. find that loss aversion increases as stake increases. This study extends the 2011 work of Berger and Pope by analysing over 68,000 US professional basketball games played from the initial National Basketball Association (NBA) season in 1946/1947 to the 2018/2019 season, and over 69,000 National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) games played from the 2007/2008 season to the 2018/2019 season. We posit that, a priori, stakes, and therefore loss aversion, will be greater for NBA teams than for NCAA teams, and higher for home teams than for away teams. Further, loss aversion is expected to be greater for favourites, that is, teams that are expected to win. We model outcomes using a digital call option. This model allows for necessary non-linearity in the relation between halftime score and winning percentage. It also provides an analysis for which the result for home (favourite) teams is not simply the converse of that for away (underdog) teams. We find evidence of better-than-expected performance for NBA home teams that are behind by up to four points, and for favourites that are behind by between two and seven points. We find no evidence of this effect with respect to NBA away teams, NBA underdogs, nor for NCAA teams – whether home or away. Our results suggest that loss aversion is apparent when stakes are high.

中文翻译：

---

损失厌恶和高风险

继 Kahneman 和 Tversky 之后，Haigh 和 List、Ert 和 Erev 以及 Mukherjee 等人的研究。发现损失厌恶随着权益的增加而增加。这项研究扩展了伯杰和波普 2011 年的工作，分析了从 1946/1947 年初始国家篮球协会 (NBA) 赛季到 2018/2019 赛季的超过 68,000 场美国职业篮球比赛，以及超过 69,000 场美国大学体育协会 (NCAA)从 2007/2008 赛季到 2018/2019 赛季的比赛。我们假设，先验NBA 球队的赌注和损失厌恶程度将高于 NCAA 球队，主队高于客队。此外，对于热门球队，即有望获胜的球队，预计损失厌恶程度会更高。我们使用数字看涨期权对结果进行建模。该模型允许在半场得分和胜率之间的关系中存在必要的非线性。它还提供了一个分析，其中主队（最喜欢的）球队的结果不仅仅是与客队（弱队）的相反。我们发现有证据表明，落后最多 4 分的 NBA 主队以及落后 2 到 7 分的热门球队的表现好于预期。对于 NBA 客场球队、NBA 弱队，以及 NCAA 球队——无论是主场还是客场，我们都没有发现这种影响的证据。