This paper presents a methodological framework to conduct a water stress assessment of water resources through water stress index. A modified version of the water stress index was developed and applied for cereal grown in the Kebir Rhumel Basin, Algeria. The water stress index defined as Crop Stress Index (CSI) and derived by accumulating differences in water supply and demand over time to assess the maximum cumulative deficit. The forecasting crop water stress index for cereals was developed here as a way of understanding and hedging risk. The CSI was forecasted using the appropriate climate predictors as predictors in a non-parametric k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) approach that issues probabilistic forecasts. The accuracy of the CSI forecasts in the years 2002–2013 was judged based directional concordance and contingency metrics such as hit, miss and false alarm rate. The results showed that our forecasts were correct 8 out of 12 times, with three misses and just one false alarm. These results confirmed that this is a useful approach in investigating irrigation needs. Finally, it was found that this water stress index is a useful tool to estimate water storage and irrigation requirements in the interest of agricultural water resources.

本文提出了一种通过水分胁迫指数对水资源进行水分胁迫评估的方法框架。开发了改良版的水分胁迫指数，并将其应用于阿尔及利亚Kebir Rhumel盆地种植的谷物。水分胁迫指数定义为作物胁迫指数（CSI），通过累积一段时间内的水供需差异来评估最大累积赤字而得出。在此开发了谷物的预测作物水分胁迫指数，作为了解和对冲风险的一种方法。CSI是使用适当的气候预测因子作为非参数k近邻（k-NN）发出概率预测的方法。CSI预测在2002-2013年期间的准确性是根据方向一致性和偶然性指标（如命中率，未命中率和误报率）进行判断的。结果表明，我们的预测在12次中有8次是正确的，其中有3次未命中，只有1次虚警。这些结果证实，这是调查灌溉需求的有用方法。最后，人们发现，该水分胁迫指数是一种有用的工具，可以根据农业水资源的需要估算储水量和灌溉量。