ABSTRACT

This article investigates dairy farm investment behaviour and the presence of soft budget constraints in the dairy farms of Baltic and Central European transition countries – Estonia, Hungary and Slovenia – using individual dairy farm accountancy panel data for the years 2007–2015. The empirical results confirm that gross dairy farm investment is positively associated with gross dairy farm investment for the previous year for financially unconstrained dairy farms, and negatively for financially constrained dairy farms. It is also positively associated with public investment subsidies, and, except for Slovenia, with growth in real sales for financially unconstrained dairy farms. Mixed results are found for gross dairy farm investment squared and cash flow variables. A particularly significant negative cash flow regression coefficient implies significant soft budget constraints for financially unconstrained Estonian and Slovenian dairy farms, while insignificant cash flow regression coefficients imply weak soft budget constraints for financially unconstrained Hungarian dairy farms.

摘要

本文使用2007-2015年的各个奶牛场会计面板数据，调查了波罗的海和中欧转型国家（爱沙尼亚，匈牙利和斯洛文尼亚）的奶牛场投资行为和软预算约束的存在。实证结果证实，财务上没有限制的奶牛场，上一年的奶牛场总投资与奶牛场的总投资正相关，而财务上受限制的奶牛场则与前一年的奶牛场总投资呈负相关。它还与公共投资补贴呈正相关，除斯洛文尼亚外，与不受财务限制的奶牛场的实际销售增长有关。对于奶牛场总投资平方和现金流量变量，发现混合结果。