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An improved SIR model describing the epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 in China
Results in Physics ( IF 5.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-08 , DOI: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104289 Wen-jing Zhu , Shou-feng Shen
更新日期：2021-05-08
Results in Physics ( IF 5.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-08 , DOI: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104289 Wen-jing Zhu , Shou-feng Shen
In this letter, an improved SIR (ISIR) model is proposed, to analyze the spread of COVID-19 during the time window 21/01/2020–08/02/2021. The parameters can be extracted from an inverse problem of the ISIR to assess the risk of COVID-19. This study identifies that the cure rate is 0.05 and the reproduction number is 0.4490 during the time interval. The prediction values demonstrates high similarity to the reported data. The results indicate that the disease had been under control in China.
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