Abstract

Seismic structural assessment of masonry arch bridges is essential due to their cultural, economic and strategic importance and vulnerability. A realistic and rigorous structural assessment is necessary in order to protect the bridges and use resources carefully. At this time, there are no standardised or widely accepted assessment procedures, and the performance criteria for masonry arch bridges are not available. This study presents an overarching reliability-based seismic assessment methodology based on analytical modelling, laboratory testing and probabilistic assessment. It investigates the performance criteria concept and proposes performance limit states. The methodology is applied to a historical masonry arch bridge in Turkey. To consider rigorously the uncertainties in material properties and seismic input, probabilistic nonlinear analyses are conducted using a detailed 3D finite element model. The results are combined with the proposed limit state definitions to generate the capacity and demand distributions. Both distributions are used in Monte Carlo simulation and First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) to estimate the probability of exceedance and reliability indexes for each limit state. The proposed probabilistic assessment methodology will be a useful approach to obtaining more reliable information about masonry arch bridges' expected seismic performance and for better-informed decision-making, especially when designing intervention actions and post-earthquake scenarios.

摘要

由于砖石拱桥在文化、经济和战略上的重要性和脆弱性，因此对砖石拱桥进行抗震结构评估至关重要。为了保护桥梁和谨慎使用资源，必须进行现实而严格的结构评估。目前，还没有标准化或被广泛接受的评估程序，也没有砌体拱桥的性能标准。本研究提出了一种基于分析建模、实验室测试和概率评估的总体基于可靠性的地震评估方法。它研究了性能标准概念并提出了性能极限状态。该方法应用于土耳其一座历史悠久的砖石拱桥。严格考虑材料特性和地震输入的不确定性，使用详细的 3D 有限元模型进行概率非线性分析。结果与建议的极限状态定义相结合，以生成容量和需求分布。两种分布均用于蒙特卡罗模拟和一阶可靠性方法 (FORM)，以估计每个极限状态的超出概率和可靠性指标。拟议的概率评估方法将是一种有用的方法，可以获取有关砌体拱桥预期抗震性能的更可靠信息，并有助于做出更明智的决策，特别是在设计干预行动和地震后情景时。两种分布均用于蒙特卡罗模拟和一阶可靠性方法 (FORM)，以估计每个极限状态的超出概率和可靠性指标。拟议的概率评估方法将是一种有用的方法，可以获取有关砌体拱桥预期抗震性能的更可靠信息，并有助于做出更明智的决策，特别是在设计干预行动和地震后情景时。两种分布均用于蒙特卡罗模拟和一阶可靠性方法 (FORM)，以估计每个极限状态的超出概率和可靠性指标。拟议的概率评估方法将是一种有用的方法，可以获取有关砌体拱桥预期抗震性能的更可靠信息，并有助于做出更明智的决策，特别是在设计干预行动和地震后情景时。