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CBM challenges and opportunities for O&M of the Johan Sverdrup Oil and Gas Field
Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering ( IF 5.168 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-08 , DOI: 10.1016/j.petrol.2021.108890
Jose V. Taboada , Vicente Diaz Casas , Xi Yu

Paper describes the challenges and forward developments to face up on Operation and Maintenance (O&M) issues at the Johan Sverdrup field (Blocks: PL 501, PL 265 and PL 502), on the phases (Concept and Design, Construction and Hook-up, Commissioning, Operations and Maintenance, and Recycling), and a research study of the Oil&Gas profitability. Estimated reserves are between 1.8 billion to 2.8 billion bbl, so assessing the total risk of the field development is crucial. Although, development is estimated to cost up to $31 billion, but the full life-cycle price tag, including operating costs through 2068, is around $58.33 billion.

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a conceptual methodology analysis framework, for understanding how analysis of cost and benefits, are carry out for assessment and implementation of the Condition Base Monitoring (CBM) and measure the total OPEX (Operate Expenditure/Operating Cost). As well as a specific maintenance philosophy and conceptual approach on the business cases studies of the project lead, to a cost-effective solution. Paper begins by providing a background for analyzing the life-cycle impacts during the life of the field (50 years), and describing measures to implement during the O&M strategies. Follows by targeting the expectations, which one rest on profitability and optimization of the field, with oil prices above $60 per barrel (proved on Case 3). The harvest will, therefore, be profitable even after the price crash.

Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis (Alternatives A and B) focuses and identifies “Cost Items” (Cost Drivers) that the project carries. Achieved a reliable “concept development” is the greatest ambition, but uncertainties on Maintenance strategies and programs, have showed high cost at early phases. The aim was to measure the actual costs against predicted LCC and to calculate the cumulative costs throughout a product's Life Cycle (LC) of the assets. Discussed and summarized the extent to which these costs and benefits may already take into account and how the CBM strategy mechanism should be works based on a model built.

Finally, is demonstrated through calculating an ″downtime scenario″ that could happens, which one creates Deferred Production Costs. Also, has been estimate the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) might be applicable on the researched project development ratio (cost vs. benefit), with overall maintenance effectiveness strategy under study on the LCC Alternative 2.

Therefore, describing the maintenance support functionality, based on input obtained from CBM systems and a predictive, periodic maintenance plan is indispensable, in order to cut off potential costs, target future benefits and guaranty a safety robust production installation. At the end, the paper addresses the future performance outlook development in the Oil&Gas Industry as whole, stating essential optimization valuable principles.



中文翻译:

约翰·斯维尔德鲁普油气田的煤层气挑战与运维机遇

论文描述了在Johan Sverdrup现场(块:PL 501,PL 265和PL 502)的阶段(概念和设计,施工和连接,调试,运营和维护以及回收),以及对石油和天然气盈利能力的研究。估计储量在18亿至28亿桶之间,因此评估油田开发的总风险至关重要。尽管开发成本估计高达310亿美元,但整个生命周期的价格(包括到2068年的运营成本)约为583.3亿美元。

本文的目的是演示一个概念性的方法分析框架,以了解如何进行成本和收益分析,以评估和实施条件库监控(CBM)并衡量总运营支出(运营支出/运营成本) 。以及针对项目业务案例研究的特定维护理念和概念性方法,可以提供一种经济高效的解决方案。本文首先提供了一个背景,用于分析油田生命周期(50年)中的生命周期影响,并描述在运维策略中要实施的措施。其次是针对期望值,其中一个取决于盈利能力和油田的优化,油价高于每桶60美元(在案例3中得到证明)。因此,即使价格暴跌之后,收成也将是有利可图的。

生命周期成本(LCC)分析(替代方案A和B)重点关注并确定项目所携带的“成本项目”(成本动因)。实现可靠的“概念开发”是最大的野心,但是维护策略和计划的不确定性在早期阶段显示出高昂的成本。目的是根据预测的LCC衡量实际成本,并计算资产整个产品生命周期(LC)的累计成本。讨论并总结了这些成本和收益可能已经考虑到的程度,以及基于建立的模型如何建立信任措施策略机制。

最后,通过计算可能发生的“停机情况”进行了演示,该停机情况会产生递延的生产成本。此外,据估计,成本效益分析(CBA)可能适用于所研究的项目开发比率(成本与收益),而总体维护有效性策略正在针对LCC备选方案2进行研究。

因此,基于从CBM系统获得的输入和预测性的定期维护计划来描述维护支持功能是必不可少的,以便削减潜在成本,目标未来收益并确保安全可靠的生产安装。最后,本文阐述了整个石油和天然气行业未来的业绩展望,并指出了必要的优化有价值的原则。

更新日期:2021-05-11
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