To examine the role of ECB communication at press conferences, we estimate non-linear empirical reaction functions for the ECB's monetary policy decisions during the first two decades of monetary union and augment them with communication indicators on the risks to price stability and to growth. Overall, we find that the ECB's risk assessments at press conferences provided reliable orientation to observers concerning future policy decisions. Communication about the risks to inflation and to growth was more relevant for explaining future policy changes than the staff projections themselves. We also show that the ECB responded to risks to price stability in line with its primary objective and that its reaction function evolved after the global financial crisis, when money (or credit) growth lost its significance as a driver of the policy response. Our findings add to the understanding of the ECB's reaction function and the role of communication therein.

为了检验欧洲央行在新闻发布会上沟通的作用，我们估计了货币联盟头 20 年欧洲央行货币政策决定的非线性实证反应函数，并通过有关价格稳定和增长风险的沟通指标对其进行了扩充。总体而言，我们发现欧洲央行在新闻发布会上的风险评估为观察员提供了有关未来政策决定的可靠方向。与员工预测本身相比，有关通胀和增长风险的沟通更能解释未来的政策变化。我们还表明，欧洲央行根据其主要目标对价格稳定风险做出反应，并且其反应功能在全球金融危机之后发生了变化，当货币（或信贷）增长失去其作为政策反应驱动力的重要性时。我们的发现增加了对欧洲央行反应功能和沟通在其中的作用的理解。