INTRODUCTION Social assistance programs create an income effect that allows low-income groups to raise their consumption to improve their well-being. However, this may unintentionally induce an increase in their consumption of temptation goods, including tobacco. By analyzing five massive social assistance programs distributed by the government since 2007, we explore whether those programs may induce increased smoking intensity in Indonesia. METHODS This study is a quantitative study that applies a Tobit regression, Difference-in-Differences (DiD) regression, Difference regression, and two-sample t-test, using the 2017 Susenas (National Socioeconomic Survey) and the 2007 and 2014 Indonesia Family Life Survey. Estimations using sociodemographic, regional, and social assistance dummy variables are used to explore the impact of the programs on the intensity of cigarette consumption in Indonesia, simultaneously assessing the relationship between cigarette consumption and socioeconomic conditions. RESULTS Our estimations using Tobit regressions confirm that social assistance recipients consume 3.39 cigarettes per capita per week more than non-recipients. The DiD regressions on IFLS panel data show that social assistance programs significantly increase cigarette consumption by 2.8 cigarettes per capita per week. We also find that: 1) smokers have lower socioeconomic indicators than non-smokers in terms of nutrition and health and education expenditures, and 2) younger household members living with smokers have less educational attainment and higher average sick days. CONCLUSIONS There is reasonable evidence to support the hypothesis that social assistance programs in Indonesia have contributed to the greater intensity of tobacco consumption among the recipients. The findings call for policy reforms in social assistance programs to be warier with the eligibility conditions for social assistance recipients. Adding new conditions related to smoking behaviors might reduce the smoking intensity of those in low-income groups and, in the long run, might improve the effectiveness of social assistance programs in raising the socioeconomic welfare of the low-income population.

中文翻译：

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良好的意愿，意想不到的结果：社会援助对印度尼西亚烟草消费的影响。

引言社会救助计划创造了收入效应，使低收入群体能够增加消费量以改善其福祉。但是，这可能会无意间诱使他们增加了包括烟草在内的诱惑商品的消费。通过分析政府自2007年以来发布的五项大规模社会援助计划，我们探索了这些计划是否可能导致印度尼西亚的吸烟强度增加。方法本研究是一项定量研究，使用2017年Susenas（全国社会经济调查）以及2007年和2014年印度尼西亚大家庭进行了Tobit回归，差异差异（DiD）回归，差异回归和两样本t检验。生活调查。使用社会人口统计学，区域，使用社会变量和虚拟援助变量来探讨该计划对印度尼西亚卷烟消费强度的影响，同时评估卷烟消费与社会经济状况之间的关系。结果我们使用Tobit回归进行的估算证实，社会援助接受者每周人均消费3.39支卷烟比非接受者多。IFLS面板数据的DiD回归显示，社会救助计划显着增加了每人每周2.8支卷烟的消费量。我们还发现：1）在营养，健康和教育支出方面，吸烟者的社会经济指标低于非吸烟者； 2）与吸烟者生活在一起的年轻家庭成员的教育程度较低，平均病假时间更长。结论有合理的证据支持这一假说，即印度尼西亚的社会救助计划已使接受者的烟草消费强度增加。调查结果要求社会救助计划中的政策改革要谨慎对待接受社会救助的人的资格条件。增加与吸烟行为有关的新条件可能会降低低收入人群的吸烟强度，从长远来看，可能会提高社会援助计划在提高低收入人群社会经济福利方面的有效性。调查结果要求社会救助计划中的政策改革要谨慎对待接受社会救助的人的资格条件。增加与吸烟行为有关的新条件可能会降低低收入人群的吸烟强度，从长远来看，可能会提高社会援助计划在提高低收入人群社会经济福利方面的有效性。调查结果要求社会救助计划中的政策改革要谨慎对待接受社会救助的人的资格条件。增加与吸烟行为有关的新条件可能会降低低收入人群的吸烟强度，从长远来看，可能会提高社会援助计划在提高低收入人群社会经济福利方面的有效性。