Leveraging spatiotemporal variation in homicides that occurred during a 2.5-year weekly panel survey of 387 women ages 18-22 in Flint, Michigan, we investigate how young women's desires to become pregnant and to avoid pregnancy evolve in response to local homicides during the transition to adulthood. To address the endogeneity of exposure, we explore how the same woman's pregnancy desires (1) differed, on average, across weeks before and after the first homicide occurred within a quarter mile of her home; (2) evolved in the aftermath of this initial homicide exposure; and (3) changed in response to additional nearby homicides. One-fifth (22%) of women were exposed to a nearby homicide at least once during the study, and one-third of these women were exposed multiple times. Overall, the effects of nearby homicides were gradual: although average desires to become pregnant and to avoid pregnancy differed after initial exposure, these differences emerged approximately three to five months post-exposure. Repeated exposure to nearby homicides had nonlinear effects on how much women wanted to become pregnant and how much they wanted to avoid pregnancy. Together, our analyses provide a new explanation for why some young women-especially those who are socially disadvantaged-desire pregnancy at an early age.

中文翻译：

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附近的凶杀案如何影响年轻妇女的怀孕欲望：一项准实验的证据。

利用对密歇根州弗林特市387名18-22岁女性进行的2.5年每周小组调查期间发生的凶杀时空变化，我们调查了年轻女性在过渡到过渡期期间对局部凶杀的渴望如何发生并避免怀孕成年。为了解决暴露的内生性，我们探讨了同一名妇女的怀孕欲望（1）在第一次杀人案发生在其房屋四分之一英里以内的前后几周内平均有何差异；（2）在最初的凶杀暴露之后演变而成；（3）因附近其他凶杀案而改变。在研究期间，五分之一（22％）的妇女至少一次暴露于附近的凶杀案，其中三分之一的妇女多次暴露。总体而言，附近凶杀的影响是渐进的：尽管在初次接触后平均希望怀孕和避免怀孕的意愿有所不同，但这些差异大约在接触后三到五个月出现。反复暴露于附近的凶杀案中，对想要怀孕的妇女人数以及想要避免怀孕的妇女人数产生非线性影响。总之，我们的分析为为什么某些年轻女性，尤其是那些处于社会不利地位的女性，为什么早年怀孕提供了新的解释。