Objective: The purpose of this study was to develop new 10-year recidivism rate norms as well as to update 5-year norms for the Static-99R risk tool for routine/complete samples. We also present the extrapolated sexual recidivism rates from these new 10-year norms for follow-up periods of 11 to 20 years. Hypotheses: We hypothesized that absolute-recidivism base rates (B02; i.e., the intercept centered on the median score of 2) would vary; however, the relative predictive accuracy (i.e., discrimination; B1) would be stable across samples. In addition, compared with the estimated sexual recidivism rates with a fixed 5-year follow-up time, the estimated rates with a fixed 10-year follow-up time would be expected to be consistently higher across the Static-99R scores. Method: The current study included 12 independent samples (N = 7,224 for the 5-year recidivism rate norms; N = 1,599 [k = 6] for the 10-year norms) classified as routine/complete samples, that is, relatively random samples from a correctional system. Logistic regression parameters (B02 and B1) across the studies were aggregated using fixed-effect meta-analyses. Results: There was statistically significant variability in the base rates (B02), whereas the between-sample variability in the relative-risk parameters (B1) was no more than would be expected by chance. As expected, the 10-year base rates were approximately 1.5 times higher than the 5-year base rates (7.20% vs. 4.58%), and the extrapolated 20-year sexual recidivism rates were approximately double the observed 5-year sexual recidivism rates. Conclusions: The current study provides empirical evidence to estimate 5- and 10-year sexual recidivism rates based on Static-99R total scores. Evaluators who are especially concerned about long-term sexual recidivism risk (e.g., civil commitment) can report the expected sexual recidivism risk based on the new 10-year norms and the extrapolated sexual recidivism rates for follow-up periods of 11 to 20 years. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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使用常规/完整样本更新了Static-99R的5年和新的10年性累犯率标准。

目的：本研究的目的是为常规/完整样本制定新的10年累犯率规范，并更新Static-99R风险工具的5年规范。我们还介绍了从这些新的10年规范中推算出来的11年至20年随访期的性累犯率。假设：我们假设绝对累犯基准率（B02；即以中位数2为中心的截距）会有所不同；但是，相对预测准确度（即辨别力； B1）在样本之间将是稳定的。此外，与固定的5年随访时间的估计性累犯率相比，在静态99R评分中，预期的固定10年随访时间的性累犯率将始终较高。方法：当前研究包括12个独立样本（N = 7）5年累犯率标准为224；N = 1,599 [k = 6]（对于10年的规范）被分类为常规/完整样本，即来自矫正系统的相对随机样本。使用固定效应荟萃分析汇总了研究中的逻辑回归参数（B02和B1）。结果：基本比率（B02）在统计学上具有显着的变异性，而相对风险参数（B1）的样本间变异性不超过偶然的预期。不出所料，十年期基准发病率约为五年期基准发病率的1.5倍（7.20％对4.58％），推算出的二十年性累犯率约为观察到的五年期累犯率的两倍。 。结论：当前的研究提供了经验证据，可以根据Static-99R总得分来估计5年和10年性累犯率。尤其关注长期性累犯风险（例如，民事承诺）的评估人员可以根据新的10年规范和11至20年随访期的推断性累犯率，报告预期的性累犯风险。（PsycInfo数据库记录（c）2021 APA，保留所有权利）。