For decades, the annual numbers of exits of members from the Catholic Church and Protestant Church have been increasing. Closer inspection of diocese-level data shows that the time-series pattern of exits is nonlinear with a series of intermediate peaks. This paper uses an event study approach to model the impacts of various scandals on church exit rates. We find that sexual abuse and financial scandals located in the Catholic Church contribute to increased exit rates not just in that Church but also, by way of spillover effects, to higher exit rates of Protestant Church members.

中文翻译：

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丑闻对德国天主教和新教教会退出的溢出效应

几十年来，每年从天主教会和新教教会退出的人数一直在增加。对教区级数据的仔细检查表明，出口的时间序列模式是非线性的，具有一系列中间峰值。本文使用事件研究方法来模拟各种丑闻对教会退出率的影响。我们发现，位于天主教会的性虐待和财务丑闻不仅会导致该教会的退出率增加，而且还会通过溢出效应提高新教教会成员的退出率。