Soil C sequestration is a significant CO₂ mitigation strategy, but precise assessments of sequestration require spatially explicit modeling of potential changes in soil organic C (SOC) in response to soil, climate, land condition, and management interactions. We assessed the SOC sequestration potential of the eastern Corn Belt (ECB) in the United States (Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) in response to the adoption of conservation farming practices and land use change (pasture and forestation) using the SOCRATES model. Input data was provided through an intersection of the State Soil Geographic database, National Land Cover Database, and a PRISM (https://prism.oregonstate.edu) climate surface. At the end of the 20th century, the 15.3 Mha of cropped soils in the ECB contained 632 Tg C, an estimated reduction of 52% since the introduction of agriculture in the mid 1800s. Complete adoption of no-tillage practices on prime cropland would potentially recover 147 Tg SOC over 20 yr, whereas a continuation of conventional tillage would produce a loss of 35 Tg SOC over that period. Sequestration hotspots (>500 Gg increase in SOC) under no-tillage cover 2.3 Mha providing 28 Tg C over 20 yr. The conversion of marginal (nonprime) agricultural lands to forests would yield an additional 13 Tg C in SOC and 381 Tg C in aboveground biomass. The rehabilitation of minelands to forest would yield an additional 4 Tg C in SOC and 42 Tg C in biomass. Opportunities to sequester C in the ECB via tillage and reforestation are substantial and should be incorporated into regional and national climate change mitigation strategies.

中文翻译：

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美国东部玉米带土壤固碳潜力及热点识别

土壤 C 封存是显着的 CO ₂缓解策略，但对封存的精确评估需要对土壤有机碳 (SOC) 响应土壤、气候、土地条件和管理相互作用的潜在变化进行空间明确的建模。我们评估了美国东部玉米带 (ECB) 的 SOC 封存潜力（印第安纳州、肯塔基州、马里兰州、密歇根州、俄亥俄州、宾夕法尼亚州和西弗吉尼亚州），以响应采用保护性耕作做法和土地利用变化（牧场和造林）使用 SOCRATES 模型。输入数据是通过国家土壤地理数据库、国家土地覆盖数据库和 PRISM (https://prism.oregonstate.edu) 气候表面的交叉点提供的。在 20 世纪末，ECB 中 15.3 Mha 的耕作土壤含有 632 Tg C，自 1800 年代中期引入农业以来，估计减少了 52%。在主要农田上完全采用免耕做法可能会在 20 年内恢复 147 Tg SOC，而在此期间继续常规耕作将产生 35 Tg SOC 的损失。免耕覆盖 2.3 Mha 下的封存热点（SOC 增加 >500 Gg）在 20 年内提供 28 Tg C。将边缘（非主要）农业用地转化为森林将在 SOC 中产生额外的 13 Tg C，在地上生物量中产生 381 Tg C。将矿地恢复为森林将在 SOC 中产生额外的 4 Tg C，在生物量中产生额外的 42 Tg C。通过耕作和重新造林将 C 隔离在 ECB 的机会很大，应纳入区域和国家气候变化减缓战略。