Achieving universal electricity access in sub-Saharan Africa – a milestone of SDG 7 – requires about $30bn annually until 2030 on the top of baseline investment. The private sector plays a key role in supplying these investment flows, given the governmental budgetary constraints. Yet, private players face numerous sources of risk in their infrastructure investment decisions. This risk is usually factored in using a discount rate. To allow for a more realistic evaluation of the role of the investment environment in financing energy access, here we introduce the Electricity Access Governance Index (EAGI), a composite index of energy sector regulatory quality, energy sector governance, and market risk. The index is implemented through a discount rate conversion into a bottom-up integrated electricity planning model (IMAGE-TIMER) to evaluate the role of different sources of risk for electrification investment dynamics. Our results show that the adoption of decentralised systems for achieving universal energy access requires governance and institutional reform to lower discount rates faced by companies and households and mobilise private finance. Failure to reform investment environments will likely hamper the uptake of decentralised systems even in areas where they would be the techno-economically least-cost electrification option, and thus likely leave many without electricity.

要实现撒哈拉以南非洲地区的普遍电力接入（可持续发展目标7的一个里程碑），每年需要约300亿美元，到2030年为止，这是基线投资的最高水平。鉴于政府预算的限制，私营部门在提供这些投资流量方面起着关键作用。然而，私人参与者在其基础设施投资决策中面临众多风险来源。通常在使用折现率时会考虑此风险。为了更真实地评估投资环境在为能源获取融资中的作用，在这里，我们介绍了电力获取治理指数（EAGI），它是能源行业监管质量，能源行业治理和市场风险的综合指数。该指数通过将折现率转换为自下而上的综合电力计划模型（IMAGE-TIMER）来实施，以评估不同风险来源对电气化投资动态的作用。我们的结果表明，采用分散化的系统来实现普遍的能源获取要求进行治理和体制改革，以降低公司和家庭面临的折现率，并动员私人资金。未能改革投资环境可能会阻碍分散系统的采用，即使在将其视为技术经济上成本最低的电气化选择的地区，也可能使许多人断电。我们的结果表明，采用分散化的系统来实现普遍的能源获取要求进行治理和体制改革，以降低公司和家庭面临的折现率，并动员私人资金。未能改革投资环境可能会阻碍分散系统的采用，即使在将其视为技术经济上成本最低的电气化选择的地区，也可能使许多人断电。我们的结果表明，采用分散化的系统来实现普遍的能源获取要求进行治理和体制改革，以降低公司和家庭面临的折现率，并动员私人资金。未能改革投资环境可能会阻碍分散系统的采用，即使在将其视为技术经济上成本最低的电气化选择的地区，也可能使许多人断电。