Deforestation for cattle production persists in the Brazilian Amazon despite ongoing efforts by the public and private sectors to combat it. The complexity of the cattle supply chain, which we describe in depth here, creates challenges for the landmark Zero-Deforestation Cattle Agreements in particular and for enforcement of deforestation policies in general. Here, we present a holistic analysis that is increasingly relevant as the number of policies, initiatives, and markets affecting the region increases. We provide the first property-level analysis of which ranchers decided to deforest in the last decade and identify the characteristics that are most related to deforestation. We rely on newly available animal transit and property boundary data to examine 113,000 properties in the three major cattle-producing states in the Brazilian Amazon. We consider characteristics related to a property’s role in the supply chain, location, land characteristics, and the policy environment. We find that deforestation is most likely to occur on properties that sell fewer cattle and earlier in the supply chain, are located in remote locations, and have a high percent of remaining forest. Our results can be used to improve enforcement of existing policies by targeting resources to properties and location where deforestation is more likely.

尽管公共和私营部门一直在与之作斗争，但巴西亚马逊地区仍在为牛的生产而砍伐森林。我们在此深入描述的牛供应链的复杂性，尤其对具有里程碑意义的“零森林砍伐牛协议”以及整个森林砍伐政策的实施都带来了挑战。在这里，我们提出了一项整体分析，随着影响该地区的政策，倡议和市场数量的增加，这一分析变得越来越重要。我们提供了第一个财产级别的分析，用于分析过去十年中哪些牧场主决定砍伐森林，并确定与砍伐森林最相关的特征。我们依靠新近获得的动物过境和财产边界数据来检查巴西亚马逊地区三个主要养牛州的113,000个财产。我们考虑与财产在供应链中的角色，位置，土地特征和政策环境有关的特征。我们发现，砍伐森林最有可能发生在出售较少牲畜并在供应链中处于较早位置，位于偏远地区且剩余森林比例很高的物业上。我们的结果可用于通过将资源分配到更可能毁林的物业和地点来改善现有政策的执行力。