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Sensitivity of selected summertime rainfall characteristics to pre-event atmospheric and near-surface conditions
Atmospheric Research ( IF 4.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-07 , DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105671
Milan Onderka , Jozef Pecho

Predicting the erosive potential of rain events and the overall risk of soil erosion (and other hydrologic phenomena triggered by or related to extreme rainfall) requires understanding of the background meteorology that affects rainfall characteristics. The sensitivity of total rainfall kinetic energy, 15-min peak intensities, and event total depth were evaluated with respect to pre-event atmospheric conditions in the northern part of the Pannonian Plain. Five static stability parameters: the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Convective Inhibition (CIN), Total Totals index (TT), K-index, and the composite CAPE-shear parameter were used as proxies describing the atmospheric static stability and the effect of wind shear on the development of convective precipitation. In addition to these stability parameters, near-surface air temperature and dew point temperature at 2-m above the ground were used as additional covariates in bivariate quantile regression. The primary objective of this paper was to determine the sensitivity of the rainfall characteristics to changes in the analyzed covariates and their ability to explain changes in the distribution of the considered rainfall characteristics. The analyses revealed a strong responsiveness of rainfall kinetic energy and 15-min peak rainfall intensities to dew point temperature with incremental changes following the super–CC (7–14%K−1) scaling regime when near-surface dew point temperature exceeds ~288 K. The findings have important implications for forecasting the erosive potential of rains and estimations of soil erosion in the future.



中文翻译:

选定的夏季降雨特征对事前大气和近地表条件的敏感性

预测降雨事件的潜在侵蚀和土壤侵蚀的总体风险(以及极端降雨引发或与之相关的其他水文现象),需要了解影响降雨特征的背景气象。相对于Pannonian平原北部的事前大气条件,评估了总降雨动能,15分钟峰强度和事件总深度的敏感性。五个静态稳定性参数:对流有效势能(CAPE),对流抑制(CIN),总指数(TT),K指数和复合CAPE-剪切参数被用作描述大气静态稳定性及其影响的代理。切变对对流降水发展的影响。除了这些稳定性参数之外,在双变量分位数回归中,将近地表空气温度和距地面2 m处的露点温度用作其他协变量。本文的主要目的是确定降雨特征对分析的协变量变化的敏感性及其解释所考虑的降雨特征分布变化的能力。分析表明,在超级CC(7–14%K)之后,降雨动能和15分钟峰值降雨强度对露点温度具有强烈的响应性,并且随着增量变化而变化。本文的主要目的是确定降雨特征对分析的协变量变化的敏感性及其解释所考虑的降雨特征分布变化的能力。分析表明,在超级CC(7–14%K)之后,降雨动能和15分钟峰值降雨强度对露点温度具有强烈的响应性,并且随着增量变化而变化。本文的主要目的是确定降雨特征对分析的协变量变化的敏感性及其解释所考虑的降雨特征分布变化的能力。分析表明,在超级CC(7–14%K)之后,降雨动能和15分钟峰值降雨强度对露点温度具有强烈的响应性,并且随着增量变化而变化。-1)当近地表露点温度超过〜288 K时的结垢状态。这一发现对于预测未来的降雨侵蚀力和土壤侵蚀的估计具有重要意义。

更新日期:2021-05-11
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