This paper develops an argument against causal decision theory. I formulate a principle of preference, which I call the Guaranteed Principle. I argue that the preferences of rational agents satisfy the Guaranteed Principle, that the preferences of agents who embody causal decision theory do not, and hence that causal decision theory is false.

中文翻译：

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反对因果决策理论

本文提出了反对因果决策理论的观点。我制定了优先原则，我称之为保证原则。我认为理性主体的偏好满足保证原则，体现因果决策理论的主体的偏好不满足，因此因果决策理论是错误的。