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Disarray at the headquarters: Economists and Central bankers tested by the subprime and the COVID recessions
Industrial and Corporate Change ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-05 , DOI: 10.1093/icc/dtaa065
Francisco Louçã 1 , Alexandre Abreu 2 , Gonçalo Pessa Costa 3
Affiliation  

The article explores the discussions among economic modelers and central banks research staff and decision makers, namely on the adequacy of unconventional monetary policy and fiscal expansionary measures after the subprime crisis and as the COVID recession is developing. First, the article investigates the arguments, models and policy proposals of several mainstream schools of economics that challenged the traditional Chicagoan orthodoxy based on Milton Friedman’s views, and developed the Lucas Critique, the New Classical synthesis and Real Business Cycle approach that replaced monetarism as the main rivals to old-time Keynesianism. Second, the transformation of Real Business Cycle models into Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models is mapped, as it extended the ideas of the iniquity of government intervention and unified academic and central bank research. Yet, a battery of criticism was levied against the DSGE models and, as the debate emerged over quantitative easing and other tools of unconventional monetary policy, the need for policy pragmatism shattered the previous consensus. The article then proceeds to discuss how the leading mainstream academic economists reacted to changes in central banks‘ practices, noticing a visible dissonance within Chicago-school and DSGE economists, as well as major contortions of central bankers in order to justify their new postures. The article concludes with a call for an extensive menu of fiscal, industrial and innovation policies in order to respond to recessions and structural crises.

中文翻译:

总部混乱:经济学家和央行行长受到次贷和 COVID 衰退的考验

本文探讨了经济建模师与央行研究人员和决策者之间的讨论,即次贷危机后以及随着 COVID 衰退的发展,非常规货币政策和财政扩张措施的充分性。首先,文章基于米尔顿弗里德曼的观点,调查了挑战芝加哥传统正统观念的几个主流经济学派的论点、模型和政策建议,并发展了卢卡斯批判、新古典综合和实际商业周期方法,取代货币主义作为旧时代凯恩斯主义的主要竞争对手。其次,映射了真实商业周期模型到动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型的转换,因为它扩展了政府干预和统一学术和中央银行研究的罪恶的思想。然而,对 DSGE 模型提出了一系列批评,随着关于量化宽松和其他非常规货币政策工具的辩论出现,政策实用主义的必要性打破了先前的共识。然后,文章继续讨论领先的主流学术经济学家如何应对中央银行做法的变化,注意到芝加哥学派和 DSGE 经济学家之间明显的不协调,以及中央银行家为证明他们的新立场而做出的重大扭曲。文章最后呼吁制定广泛的财政、工业和创新政策菜单,以应对衰退和结构性危机。DSGE 模型受到了一系列批评,随着关于量化宽松和其他非常规货币政策工具的辩论出现,政策实用主义的必要性打破了先前的共识。然后,文章继续讨论领先的主流学术经济学家如何应对中央银行做法的变化,注意到芝加哥学派和 DSGE 经济学家之间明显的不协调,以及中央银行家为证明他们的新立场而做出的重大扭曲。文章最后呼吁制定广泛的财政、工业和创新政策菜单,以应对衰退和结构性危机。DSGE 模型受到了一系列批评,随着关于量化宽松和其他非常规货币政策工具的辩论出现,政策实用主义的必要性打破了先前的共识。然后,文章继续讨论领先的主流学术经济学家如何应对中央银行做法的变化,注意到芝加哥学派和 DSGE 经济学家之间明显的不协调,以及中央银行家为证明他们的新立场而做出的重大扭曲。文章最后呼吁制定广泛的财政、工业和创新政策菜单,以应对衰退和结构性危机。政策务实的需要打破了先前的共识。然后,文章继续讨论领先的主流学术经济学家如何应对中央银行做法的变化,注意到芝加哥学派和 DSGE 经济学家之间明显的不协调,以及中央银行家为证明他们的新立场而做出的重大扭曲。文章最后呼吁制定广泛的财政、工业和创新政策菜单,以应对衰退和结构性危机。政策务实的需要打破了先前的共识。然后,文章继续讨论领先的主流学术经济学家如何应对中央银行做法的变化,注意到芝加哥学派和 DSGE 经济学家之间明显的不协调,以及中央银行家为证明他们的新立场而做出的重大扭曲。文章最后呼吁制定广泛的财政、工业和创新政策菜单,以应对衰退和结构性危机。
更新日期:2021-05-05
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